🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as GKS Katowice edge out Stal Mielec 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

GKS Katowice beat Stal Mielec 1-0 at Stadion ul. Bukowa, Regular Season - 19, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting GKS Katowice 1.37 xG and Stal Mielec 1.09 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Stal Mielec landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GKS Katowice attack 0.88 / defence 1.01 against Stal Mielec attack 0.89 / defence 1.09, drawn from 18/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it GKS Katowice 43% | Draw 28% | Stal Mielec 29%, with GKS Katowice to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GKS Katowice 56%, Stal Mielec 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

GKS Katowice's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

Stal Mielec's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — GKS Katowice 1.28 PPG, Stal Mielec 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GKS Katowice win broke the near-deadlock. GKS Katowice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights