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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as GKS Katowice edge out Motor Lublin 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

GKS Katowice beat Motor Lublin 3-2 at Stadion miejski w Katowicach, Regular Season - 29, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting GKS Katowice 1.60 xG and Motor Lublin 0.94 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. GKS Katowice beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Motor Lublin outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GKS Katowice attack 1.05 / defence 0.80 against Motor Lublin attack 1.07 / defence 1.07, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it GKS Katowice 51% | Draw 28% | Motor Lublin 21%, with GKS Katowice to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GKS Katowice 55%, Motor Lublin 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

GKS Katowice's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Motor Lublin's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — GKS Katowice 1.44 PPG, Motor Lublin 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GKS Katowice win broke the near-deadlock. GKS Katowice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Motor Lublin (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights