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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Legia Warszawa cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over GKS Katowice.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Legia Warszawa beat GKS Katowice 1-3 at Arena Katowice, Regular Season - 30, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting GKS Katowice 1.65 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.27 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Legia Warszawa outscored their 1.27 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GKS Katowice attack 0.94 / defence 0.85 against Legia Warszawa attack 1.22 / defence 1.17, drawn from 29/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it GKS Katowice 46% | Draw 24% | Legia Warszawa 30%, with GKS Katowice to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Legia Warszawa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GKS Katowice 52%, Legia Warszawa 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

GKS Katowice's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Legia Warszawa's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — GKS Katowice 1.45 PPG, Legia Warszawa 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Legia Warszawa win broke the near-deadlock. GKS Katowice (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights