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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant GKS Katowice run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Arka Gdynia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

GKS Katowice beat Arka Gdynia 4-1 at Stadion miejski w Katowicach, Regular Season - 5, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting GKS Katowice 1.36 xG and Arka Gdynia 0.81 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. GKS Katowice beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GKS Katowice attack 0.93 / defence 1.04 against Arka Gdynia attack 0.63 / defence 0.89, drawn from 38/4 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it GKS Katowice 49% | Draw 28% | Arka Gdynia 22%, with GKS Katowice to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GKS Katowice 75%, Arka Gdynia 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

GKS Katowice's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Arka Gdynia's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Arka Gdynia arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.25. Form was overturned, with GKS Katowice winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. GKS Katowice scored 4 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line. Arka Gdynia shipped 4 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights