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Stalemate at Cracovia Krakow's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego, Regular Season - 14, as Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin drew 0-0 in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.73 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 0.90 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cracovia Krakow fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Zaglebie Lubin landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 1.02 / defence 0.83 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.91 / defence 1.04, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 56% | Draw 26% | Zaglebie Lubin 18%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 56%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 59%, Zaglebie Lubin 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.

Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Cracovia Krakow arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.74 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights