Cracovia Krakow 2-1 Zaglebie Lubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cracovia Krakow at 41%, yet in-form Zaglebie Lubin provide a compelling counter-argument — this Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Cracovia Krakow welcome Zaglebie Lubin to Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego in Ekstraklasa (matchday 4). Kick-off is Friday 11 August 2023 at 18:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Cracovia Krakow have gone 4W 3D 3L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Cracovia Krakow have posted 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Zaglebie Lubin — last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Zaglebie Lubin have posted 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Zaglebie Lubin's 2.10 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Cracovia Krakow's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Cracovia Krakow have won 2, Zaglebie Lubin 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 13 May 2023, ended Cracovia Krakow 0–1 Zaglebie Lubin — a Zaglebie Lubin win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Cracovia Krakow in-play tendencies (last 36 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
Zaglebie Lubin in-play tendencies (last 36 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 42% versus Zaglebie Lubin 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 36% | Zaglebie Lubin 47%). Note also that Zaglebie Lubin surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Cracovia Krakow recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.31 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.026 / defence 0.916 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.222 / defence 0.892. League average goals — home 1.426 / away 0.950. Zaglebie Lubin have an above-average attack rating of 1.222, which lifts their away xG to 1.06. Data: built from Cracovia Krakow's last 36 games and Zaglebie Lubin's last 37. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 41% | Draw 29% | Zaglebie Lubin 30%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 2.41 | Draw 3.47 | Zaglebie Lubin 3.36. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cracovia Krakow are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Zaglebie Lubin (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Cracovia Krakow 40% (last 10 home games) | Zaglebie Lubin 60% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Cracovia Krakow 36 games, Zaglebie Lubin 37) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 4 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Friday 11 August 2023 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 41% | Draw 29% | Zaglebie Lubin 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.31 / Zaglebie Lubin 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.026 / def 0.916 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.222 / def 0.892 | league avg home 1.426 / away 0.950 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Zaglebie Lubin xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin FAQs
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Friday 11 August 2023 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Cracovia Krakow 2 - 1 Zaglebie Lubin.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 4) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 41% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cracovia Krakow's attack rating (1.03) and Zaglebie Lubin's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zaglebie Lubin's attack versus Cracovia Krakow's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cracovia Krakow's last 36 games and Zaglebie Lubin's last 37, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
41%
2.41
29%
3.47
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
2.37
1.06
Zaglebie Lubin xG
2.41
41%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
14%
6.98
8%
12.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.0 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 1.06 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cracovia Krakow's recent record stands at 13W 11D 12L from 36 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-W in the last five.
Zaglebie Lubin, meanwhile, have gone 14W 9D 13L across 36 games — 1.42 PPG, with W-D-W-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cracovia Krakow on 1.39 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cracovia Krakow have managed 8W 5D 4L from their last 17 home games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zaglebie Lubin's away record stands at 9W 4D 4L across their last 17 away games, a 1.82 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.42 PPG overall record — Zaglebie Lubin travel well.
Goals in Recent Form
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 1.11 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Defensively: Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Early Season
Zaglebie Lubin
Early Season
Cracovia Krakow (Home) vs Zaglebie Lubin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cracovia Krakow
Early Season
Zaglebie Lubin
Early Season
❓ Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin Form FAQs
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 13W 11D 12L in their last 36 games (1.39 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 14W 9D 13L in their last 36 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Zaglebie Lubin away?
Zaglebie Lubin's away record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.71 PPG; Zaglebie Lubin away: 1.82 PPG.
Have Cracovia Krakow or Zaglebie Lubin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Zaglebie Lubin in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from April 2022. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 10 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Cracovia Krakow's record when hosting Zaglebie Lubin specifically: 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Cracovia Krakow
4
Draws
1
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Cracovia Krakow have won 5, Zaglebie Lubin have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 October 2026: Cracovia Krakow 3-1 Zaglebie Lubin.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cracovia Krakow see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cracovia Krakow 29%, Zaglebie Lubin 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Cracovia Krakow) and 65% (Zaglebie Lubin).
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Cracovia Krakow have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Cracovia Krakow's recent matches and 47% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Cracovia Krakow's recent games and 65% of Zaglebie Lubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 53% of Cracovia Krakow's recent matches and 65% of Zaglebie Lubin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cracovia Krakow edge out Zaglebie Lubin 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cracovia Krakow beat Zaglebie Lubin 2-1 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 4, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.31 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.06 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 1.03 / defence 0.92 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.22 / defence 0.89, drawn from 36/37 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 41% | Draw 29% | Zaglebie Lubin 30%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 36%, Zaglebie Lubin 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cracovia Krakow 1.39 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cracovia Krakow win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.