Widzew Łódź 1-0 ŁKS Łódź – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Widzew Łódź at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Widzew Łódź vs ŁKS Łódź fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
ŁKS Łódź make the trip to Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź to face Widzew Łódź in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Saturday 12 August 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Widzew Łódź (all games): 2W 0D 8L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Widzew Łódź have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź, Widzew Łódź have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
ŁKS Łódź's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. ŁKS Łódź have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.60 PPG for Widzew Łódź against 1.00 for ŁKS Łódź. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Widzew Łódź — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games.
ŁKS Łódź — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Widzew Łódź 100% and ŁKS Łódź 33% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Widzew Łódź 100% | ŁKS Łódź 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.92 xG and ŁKS Łódź 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 1.034 / defence 1.385 | ŁKS Łódź attack 0.652 / defence 1.275. League average goals — home 1.458 / away 0.952. ŁKS Łódź bring a strong defensive rating of 1.275 — this is suppressing Widzew Łódź's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Widzew Łódź games / 3 ŁKS Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 62% | Draw 22% | ŁKS Łódź 16%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 1.61 | Draw 4.55 | ŁKS Łódź 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Widzew Łódź (62%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Widzew Łódź as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Widzew Łódź 60% | ŁKS Łódź 33%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs ŁKS Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Aug 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 62% | Draw 22% | ŁKS Łódź 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 49% | xG Widzew Łódź 1.92 / ŁKS Łódź 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 1.034 / def 1.385 | ŁKS Łódź attack 0.652 / def 1.275 | league avg home 1.458 / away 0.952 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
0.86
ŁKS Łódź xG
49%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Widzew Łódź vs ŁKS Łódź kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs ŁKS Łódź kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 12 August 2023 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What was the final score in Widzew Łódź vs ŁKS Łódź?
Widzew Łódź 1 - 0 ŁKS Łódź.
Where is Widzew Łódź vs ŁKS Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs ŁKS Łódź part of?
Widzew Łódź vs ŁKS Łódź is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs ŁKS Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 62% chance of winning, ŁKS Łódź a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs ŁKS Łódź?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Widzew Łódź and ŁKS Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Widzew Łódź vs ŁKS Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and ŁKS Łódź?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Widzew Łódź and ŁKS Łódź in?
Widzew Łódź (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. ŁKS Łódź (all comps): 1W-0D-2L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Widzew Łódź's attack at 1.03x the league average against ŁKS Łódź's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.92 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — ŁKS Łódź's attack (0.65x) against Widzew Łódź's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 37/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
62%
1.61
22%
4.63
16%
6.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
2.78
0.86
ŁKS Łódź xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
6.21
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
15%
6.83
Win to Nil
26%
3.80
2%
42.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.9 | 10.2 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.3 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs ŁKS Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and ŁKS Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 0.86 for ŁKS Łódź, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs ŁKS Łódź?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 3 outings, Widzew Łódź have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 1W 0D 2L record — W-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
ŁKS Łódź's form line: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-W. It's still early in the season for ŁKS Łódź, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Widzew Łódź against 1.00 for ŁKS Łódź. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; ŁKS Łódź are on 0.67 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Widzew Łódź have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Last 3 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Early Season
ŁKS Łódź
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Widzew Łódź and ŁKS Łódź in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 games (1.00 PPG), while ŁKS Łódź have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Widzew Łódź
0
Draws
0
ŁKS Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and ŁKS Łódź?
From 2 meetings on record, Widzew Łódź have won 2, ŁKS Łódź have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and ŁKS Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2024, when ŁKS Łódź 0-2 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and ŁKS Łódź?
Widzew Łódź have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
ŁKS Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Widzew Łódź, 33% for ŁKS Łódź — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Widzew Łódź and 67% for ŁKS Łódź. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: ŁKS Łódź in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / ŁKS Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Widzew Łódź play ŁKS Łódź?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Widzew Łódź's games and 33% of ŁKS Łódź's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Widzew Łódź vs ŁKS Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Widzew Łódź's matches and 67% of ŁKS Łódź's.
Do Widzew Łódź and ŁKS Łódź tend to score early?
Widzew Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, ŁKS Łódź in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Widzew Łódź edge out ŁKS Łódź 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Widzew Łódź beat ŁKS Łódź 1-0 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź, Regular Season - 4, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.92 xG and ŁKS Łódź 0.86 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Widzew Łódź fell 0.9 short of their projected output. ŁKS Łódź landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 1.03 / defence 1.39 against ŁKS Łódź attack 0.65 / defence 1.27, drawn from 37/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 62% | Draw 22% | ŁKS Łódź 16%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 83% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 100%, ŁKS Łódź 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
ŁKS Łódź's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 67% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Widzew Łódź 1.00 PPG, ŁKS Łódź 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Widzew Łódź win broke the near-deadlock. Widzew Łódź conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. ŁKS Łódź conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.