Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Plock Prediction & Preview

Poisson model rates Cracovia Krakow at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cracovia Krakow face Wisla Plock.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

Wisla Plock travel to Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego to take on Cracovia Krakow in Ekstraklasa (matchday 25). The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 March 2027 at 17:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Cracovia Krakow have gone 2W 1D 7L — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

At home, Cracovia Krakow have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Cracovia Krakow are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Wisla Plock — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Wisla Plock away from home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.

The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Cracovia Krakow) versus 1.10 (Wisla Plock). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, Cracovia Krakow have won 2, Wisla Plock 4, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Sep 2026, ended Cracovia Krakow 1–3 Wisla Plock — a Wisla Plock win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Cracovia Krakow in-play tendencies (last 47 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).

Wisla Plock in-play tendencies (last 47 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 55% versus Wisla Plock 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 51% | Wisla Plock 40%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Cracovia Krakow surrender their half-time lead 43% of the time, while Wisla Plock have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.75 xG and Wisla Plock 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.944 / defence 1.014 | Wisla Plock attack 0.844 / defence 1.157. League average goals — home 1.598 / away 1.304. Data: built from Cracovia Krakow's last 48 games and Wisla Plock's last 47.

Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 50% | Draw 27% | Wisla Plock 22%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 1.99 | Draw 3.68 | Wisla Plock 4.45. Cracovia Krakow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Cracovia Krakow are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Cracovia Krakow's last 10 home games and Wisla Plock's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cracovia Krakow 70% (last 10 home games) | Wisla Plock 50% (last 10 away games).

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