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Shock result as Wisla Plock defy the odds to beat Cracovia Krakow 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wisla Plock beat Cracovia Krakow 1-2 at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego, Regular Season - 25, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.44 xG and Wisla Plock 0.85 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Wisla Plock outscored their 0.85 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 0.94 / defence 1.04 against Wisla Plock attack 0.70 / defence 1.09, drawn from 58/24 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 50% | Draw 30% | Wisla Plock 21%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Wisla Plock win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 46%, Wisla Plock 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Wisla Plock's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cracovia Krakow 1.38 PPG, Wisla Plock 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wisla Plock win broke the near-deadlock. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights