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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Cracovia Krakow and Pogon Szczecin share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cracovia Krakow and Pogon Szczecin finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego, Regular Season - 30, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.24 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.17 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 0.94 / defence 1.09 against Pogon Szczecin attack 0.93 / defence 0.94, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 37% | Draw 30% | Pogon Szczecin 33%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 56%, Pogon Szczecin 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cracovia Krakow 1.40 PPG, Pogon Szczecin 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights