ŁKS Łódź 0-2 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates ŁKS Łódź at 37%, yet in-form Cracovia Krakow provide a compelling counter-argument — this ŁKS Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz plays host to ŁKS Łódź versus Cracovia Krakow in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Saturday 30 September 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
ŁKS Łódź (all games): 2W 1D 6L across 9 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 0.78 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 1.56 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for ŁKS Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ŁKS Łódź's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 1L across 4 games at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz this term (1.75 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.75 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.78 — ŁKS Łódź are significantly better at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz than their overall form suggests.
Cracovia Krakow's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cracovia Krakow away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Cracovia Krakow are 0.62 PPG clear of ŁKS Łódź in recent Ekstraklasa fixtures (1.40 vs 0.78). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading
ŁKS Łódź half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
Cracovia Krakow half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ŁKS Łódź 33% versus Cracovia Krakow 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ŁKS Łódź 44% | Cracovia Krakow 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ŁKS Łódź 1.16 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ŁKS Łódź attack 0.857 / defence 1.149 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.826 / defence 0.919. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.114. Data: 9 ŁKS Łódź games / 42 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ŁKS Łódź 37% | Draw 31% | Cracovia Krakow 32%. Fair-value odds: ŁKS Łódź 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Cracovia Krakow 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is ŁKS Łódź at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cracovia Krakow (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on ŁKS Łódź if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: ŁKS Łódź 50% | Cracovia Krakow 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ŁKS Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Sep 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ŁKS Łódź 37% | Draw 31% | Cracovia Krakow 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG ŁKS Łódź 1.16 / Cracovia Krakow 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: ŁKS Łódź attack 0.857 / def 1.149 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.826 / def 0.919 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: ŁKS Łódź (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
ŁKS Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Cracovia Krakow xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ŁKS Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
ŁKS Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 30 September 2023 at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz.
What was the final score in ŁKS Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow?
ŁKS Łódź 0 - 2 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is ŁKS Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz.
What competition is ŁKS Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
ŁKS Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win ŁKS Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives ŁKS Łódź a 37% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making ŁKS Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in ŁKS Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both ŁKS Łódź and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will ŁKS Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between ŁKS Łódź and Cracovia Krakow?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are ŁKS Łódź and Cracovia Krakow in?
ŁKS Łódź (all comps): 2W-1D-6L in 9 | 0.78 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.56 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates ŁKS Łódź's attack at 0.86x the league average against Cracovia Krakow's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cracovia Krakow's attack (0.83x) against ŁKS Łódź's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 9/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
ŁKS Łódź Win
37%
2.72
31%
3.18
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
ŁKS Łódź xG
Total xG
2.22
1.06
Cracovia Krakow xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
13%
7.83
10%
10.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 11.5 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.4 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ŁKS Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are ŁKS Łódź and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for ŁKS Łódź and 1.06 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for ŁKS Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
ŁKS Łódź come into this having played 9 games, going 2W 1D 6L for 0.78 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-D. The sample for ŁKS Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cracovia Krakow sit at 1.44 PPG from 9 outings (3W 4D 2L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cracovia Krakow carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of ŁKS Łódź — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
ŁKS Łódź's home form reads 2W 1D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.78 PPG overall — ŁKS Łódź are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Cracovia Krakow have taken 1.25 points per game from 4 outings (1W 2D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ŁKS Łódź come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
ŁKS Łódź are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.11 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: Cracovia Krakow in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ŁKS Łódź
Blended
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ŁKS Łódź and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
ŁKS Łódź have gone 2W 1D 6L in their last 9 games (0.78 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 3W 4D 2L in their last 9 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ŁKS Łódź at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
ŁKS Łódź's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ŁKS Łódź at home: 1.75 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.25 PPG.
Have ŁKS Łódź or Cracovia Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
ŁKS Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Cracovia Krakow in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
ŁKS Łódź
1
Draws
1
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ŁKS Łódź and Cracovia Krakow?
From 2 meetings on record, ŁKS Łódź have won 0, Cracovia Krakow have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did ŁKS Łódź and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2024, when Cracovia Krakow 2-2 ŁKS Łódź.
Who has won more matches between ŁKS Łódź and Cracovia Krakow?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
ŁKS Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ŁKS Łódź 50%, Cracovia Krakow 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (ŁKS Łódź) and 25% (Cracovia Krakow).
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow in 50%; Cracovia Krakow in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ŁKS Łódź home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ŁKS Łódź play Cracovia Krakow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of ŁKS Łódź's recent matches and 25% of Cracovia Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is ŁKS Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of ŁKS Łódź's recent games and 25% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do ŁKS Łódź and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
ŁKS Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cracovia Krakow cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over ŁKS Łódź.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cracovia Krakow beat ŁKS Łódź 0-2 at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz, Regular Season - 10, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ŁKS Łódź 1.16 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.06 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. ŁKS Łódź fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Cracovia Krakow outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ŁKS Łódź attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Cracovia Krakow attack 0.83 / defence 0.92, drawn from 9/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ŁKS Łódź 37% | Draw 31% | Cracovia Krakow 32%, with ŁKS Łódź to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Cracovia Krakow win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ŁKS Łódź 44%, Cracovia Krakow 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ŁKS Łódź's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 56% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Cracovia Krakow arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.78. That form edge translated into the three points. ŁKS Łódź (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.