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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Motor Lublin defy the odds to beat Cracovia Krakow 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Motor Lublin beat Cracovia Krakow 1-2 at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego, Regular Season - 16, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.60 xG and Motor Lublin 0.92 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Motor Lublin outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 0.91 / defence 0.76 against Motor Lublin attack 1.01 / defence 1.09, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 51% | Draw 29% | Motor Lublin 20%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Motor Lublin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 58%, Motor Lublin 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Motor Lublin's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cracovia Krakow 1.52 PPG, Motor Lublin 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Motor Lublin win broke the near-deadlock. Motor Lublin (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights