Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Legia Warszawa at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Legia Warszawa travel to Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego to take on Cracovia Krakow. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 October 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cracovia Krakow stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Cracovia Krakow have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cracovia Krakow's home record at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Legia Warszawa — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Legia Warszawa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Legia Warszawa's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Legia Warszawa's 2.40 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Cracovia Krakow's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Cracovia Krakow register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Legia Warszawa in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 5 wins apiece for Cracovia Krakow, 4 for Legia Warszawa and 1 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2026, ended 0–1 with Legia Warszawa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Cracovia Krakow in-play and half-time data (41 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Legia Warszawa in-play and half-time data (41 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 49% versus Legia Warszawa 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 46% | Legia Warszawa 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.18 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.891 / defence 1.050 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.076 / defence 0.876. League average goals — home 1.511 / away 1.259. Data: 41 Cracovia Krakow games / 41 Legia Warszawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 28% | Draw 32% | Legia Warszawa 40%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 3.57 | Draw 3.12 | Legia Warszawa 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Legia Warszawa are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cracovia Krakow 60% | Legia Warszawa 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 28% | Draw 32% | Legia Warszawa 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 56% | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.18 / Legia Warszawa 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.891 / def 1.050 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.076 / def 0.876 | league avg home 1.511 / away 1.259 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Legia Warszawa xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 28% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 40% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa?
Record (10 meetings): Cracovia Krakow 5W | Draws 1 | Legia Warszawa 4W.
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa in?
Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cracovia Krakow's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Legia Warszawa's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. The same calculation in reverse, Legia Warszawa's attack versus Cracovia Krakow's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
28%
3.53
32%
3.13
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
2.60
1.42
Legia Warszawa xG
3.53
28%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
31%
3.25
Win to Nil
7%
14.68
12%
8.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 10.5 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.4 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.3 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 1.42 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cracovia Krakow come into this having played 41 games, going 11W 17D 13L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Legia Warszawa sit at 1.56 PPG from 41 outings (16W 16D 9L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cracovia Krakow on 1.22 PPG, Legia Warszawa on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Cracovia Krakow's home form reads 7W 9D 5L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Legia Warszawa have taken 1.29 points per game from 21 outings (6W 9D 6L).
The Goals Picture
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.39 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Early Season
Legia Warszawa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 11W 17D 13L in their last 41 games (1.22 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 16W 16D 9L in their last 41 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Cracovia Krakow's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.43 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Cracovia Krakow or Legia Warszawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Legia Warszawa in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 May 2022, when Legia Warszawa won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cracovia Krakow's record when hosting Legia Warszawa specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Cracovia Krakow
1
Draws
4
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa?
From 10 meetings on record, Cracovia Krakow have won 5, Legia Warszawa have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Legia Warszawa 1-0 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cracovia Krakow see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cracovia Krakow 57%, Legia Warszawa 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Cracovia Krakow) and 38% (Legia Warszawa).
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cracovia Krakow play Legia Warszawa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Cracovia Krakow's games and 67% of Legia Warszawa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Cracovia Krakow's recent games and 38% of Legia Warszawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa tend to score early?
Cracovia Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Legia Warszawa in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.