🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Cracovia Krakow edge out Legia Warszawa 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cracovia Krakow beat Legia Warszawa 2-1 at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego, Regular Season - 7, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.33 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.24 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 0.99 / defence 0.94 against Legia Warszawa attack 1.08 / defence 0.84, drawn from 40/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 39% | Draw 27% | Legia Warszawa 35%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 60%, Legia Warszawa 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.

Legia Warszawa's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cracovia Krakow 1.53 PPG, Legia Warszawa 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cracovia Krakow win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights