🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Cracovia Krakow at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Legia Warszawa travel to Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego to take on Cracovia Krakow. The game is scheduled for Sunday 31 August 2025, 19:15 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Cracovia Krakow stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Cracovia Krakow have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Cracovia Krakow's home record at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Legia Warszawa — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Legia Warszawa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Legia Warszawa's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Cracovia Krakow) versus 1.70 (Legia Warszawa). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Cracovia Krakow register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Legia Warszawa in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Cracovia Krakow, 3 for Legia Warszawa and 1 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 May 2025, ended 3–1 with Cracovia Krakow winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Cracovia Krakow in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

Legia Warszawa in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cracovia Krakow 74% and Legia Warszawa 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 60% | Legia Warszawa 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.33 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.995 / defence 0.935 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.083 / defence 0.841. League average goals — home 1.589 / away 1.229. Data: 40 Cracovia Krakow games / 38 Legia Warszawa games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 39% | Draw 27% | Legia Warszawa 35%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Legia Warszawa 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Cracovia Krakow are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cracovia Krakow 70% | Legia Warszawa 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights