Cracovia Krakow 3-1 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Legia Warszawa at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Legia Warszawa travel to Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego to take on Cracovia Krakow. The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 May 2025, 13:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cracovia Krakow stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cracovia Krakow's home record at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Legia Warszawa — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Legia Warszawa's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Legia Warszawa's 1.70 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Cracovia Krakow's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Cracovia Krakow, 3 for Legia Warszawa and 1 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2024, ended 2–3 with Legia Warszawa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Cracovia Krakow in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Legia Warszawa in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 61% versus Legia Warszawa 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 47% | Legia Warszawa 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.43 xG and Legia Warszawa 2.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.922 / defence 1.311 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.341 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.258. Legia Warszawa have an above-average attack strength of 1.341 — the away xG of 2.21 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 66 Cracovia Krakow games / 66 Legia Warszawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 24% | Draw 20% | Legia Warszawa 55%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 4.17 | Draw 5.00 | Legia Warszawa 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Legia Warszawa (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.64. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.64 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.43 / 2.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Legia Warszawa are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.64 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cracovia Krakow 80% | Legia Warszawa 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 18 May 2025, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 24% | Draw 20% | Legia Warszawa 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 68% | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.43 / Legia Warszawa 2.21 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.922 / def 1.311 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.341 / def 1.006 | league avg home 1.546 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
2.21
Legia Warszawa xG
68%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 13:45 on Sunday 18 May 2025 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa?
Cracovia Krakow 3 - 1 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 24% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 55% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa?
Record (7 meetings): Cracovia Krakow 3W | Draws 1 | Legia Warszawa 3W.
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa in?
Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cracovia Krakow's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Legia Warszawa's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. The same calculation in reverse, Legia Warszawa's attack versus Cracovia Krakow's defence, projects 2.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 1-3 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
24%
4.09
20%
4.89
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
1 – 3
6.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
3.64
2.21
Legia Warszawa xG
4.09
24%
Home win
4.89
20%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.12
Clean Sheet
11%
9.12
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
3%
37.27
13%
7.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 8.3 | 9.2 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.9 | 6.6 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 2.21 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 3.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cracovia Krakow come into this having played 66 games, going 20W 24D 22L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, Legia Warszawa sit at 1.70 PPG from 66 outings (31W 19D 16L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five.
Legia Warszawa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Cracovia Krakow — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Cracovia Krakow's home form reads 9W 13D 11L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Legia Warszawa have taken 1.58 points per game from 33 outings (14W 10D 9L).
The Goals Picture
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.64 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cracovia Krakow have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 66 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Current Season
Legia Warszawa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 20W 24D 22L in their last 66 games (1.27 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 31W 19D 16L in their last 66 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Legia Warszawa's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.21 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 1.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 May 2022, when Legia Warszawa won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cracovia Krakow's record when hosting Legia Warszawa specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Cracovia Krakow
1
Draws
4
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa?
From 10 meetings on record, Cracovia Krakow have won 5, Legia Warszawa have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Legia Warszawa 1-0 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cracovia Krakow 67%, Legia Warszawa 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Cracovia Krakow) and 48% (Legia Warszawa).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cracovia Krakow play Legia Warszawa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Cracovia Krakow's games and 58% of Legia Warszawa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Cracovia Krakow's recent games and 48% of Legia Warszawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa tend to score early?
Cracovia Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Legia Warszawa in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cracovia Krakow cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Legia Warszawa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cracovia Krakow beat Legia Warszawa 3-1 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 33, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.43 xG and Legia Warszawa 2.21 xG, a combined 3.64. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Cracovia Krakow beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Legia Warszawa landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 0.92 / defence 1.31 against Legia Warszawa attack 1.34 / defence 1.01, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 24% | Draw 20% | Legia Warszawa 55%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Cracovia Krakow win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 47%, Legia Warszawa 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Legia Warszawa arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.27. Form was overturned, with Cracovia Krakow winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.