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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Cracovia Krakow and Lechia Gdansk share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cracovia Krakow and Lechia Gdansk finished level at 2-2 at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego, Regular Season - 3, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.81 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.27 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 1.09 / defence 0.94 against Lechia Gdansk attack 1.05 / defence 1.07, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 50% | Draw 23% | Lechia Gdansk 27%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 58%, Lechia Gdansk 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.

Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Cracovia Krakow arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights