🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Cracovia Krakow at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cracovia Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 3 as Cracovia Krakow welcome Lechia Gdansk to Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego. Kick-off is set for Sunday 3 August 2025 at 13:45 UTC.

Form Guide

Cracovia Krakow — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Cracovia Krakow have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, Cracovia Krakow have posted 3W 4D 3L at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Lechia Gdansk have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Lechia Gdansk have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Lechia Gdansk have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cracovia Krakow at 1.60 PPG versus Lechia Gdansk's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Cracovia Krakow have won 3, Lechia Gdansk 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2025, ended 0–2 with Lechia Gdansk winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Cracovia Krakow trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Lechia Gdansk trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cracovia Krakow 75% and Lechia Gdansk 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 58% | Lechia Gdansk 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.81 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.086 / defence 0.941 | Lechia Gdansk attack 1.048 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.550 / away 1.285. Data: 36 Cracovia Krakow games / 36 Lechia Gdansk games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.

Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 50% | Draw 23% | Lechia Gdansk 27%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 2.00 | Draw 4.35 | Lechia Gdansk 3.70. Cracovia Krakow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.81 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Cracovia Krakow at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 3.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cracovia Krakow 70% | Lechia Gdansk 70% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights