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Lechia Gdansk cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Cracovia Krakow.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lechia Gdansk beat Cracovia Krakow 0-2 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 31, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 2.07 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.40 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Cracovia Krakow fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 1.06 / defence 1.31 against Lechia Gdansk attack 0.87 / defence 1.26, drawn from 64/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 53% | Draw 21% | Lechia Gdansk 26%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual Lechia Gdansk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 57%, Lechia Gdansk 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did not.

Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Cracovia Krakow arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Lechia Gdansk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights