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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Cracovia Krakow and Korona Kielce share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cracovia Krakow and Korona Kielce finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego, Regular Season - 34, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.29 xG and Korona Kielce 1.01 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 0.85 / defence 0.98 against Korona Kielce attack 0.88 / defence 1.10, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 42% | Draw 31% | Korona Kielce 28%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 54%, Korona Kielce 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Korona Kielce's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cracovia Krakow 1.37 PPG, Korona Kielce 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights