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Arka Gdynia cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Zaglebie Lubin.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Arka Gdynia beat Zaglebie Lubin 3-1 at Stadion Miejski w Gdyni, Regular Season - 27, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Arka Gdynia 1.15 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.33 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Arka Gdynia beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arka Gdynia attack 0.94 / defence 1.08 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.11 / defence 0.85, drawn from 26/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Arka Gdynia 31% | Draw 30% | Zaglebie Lubin 39%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Arka Gdynia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arka Gdynia 58%, Zaglebie Lubin 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Arka Gdynia's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Zaglebie Lubin arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.15. Form was overturned, with Arka Gdynia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Arka Gdynia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights