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Prediction vindicated as Arka Gdynia edge out Pogon Szczecin 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Arka Gdynia beat Pogon Szczecin 2-1 at Stadion Miejski w Gdyni, Regular Season - 4, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Arka Gdynia 1.46 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.37 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arka Gdynia attack 0.79 / defence 1.11 against Pogon Szczecin attack 0.98 / defence 1.20, drawn from 3/37 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Arka Gdynia 39% | Draw 25% | Pogon Szczecin 35%, with Arka Gdynia to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arka Gdynia 0%, Pogon Szczecin 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Arka Gdynia's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.67. Form was overturned, with Arka Gdynia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Arka Gdynia scored 2 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm. Pogon Szczecin managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights