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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Nieciecza defy the odds to beat Arka Gdynia 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nieciecza beat Arka Gdynia 2-3 at Stadion Miejski w Gdyni, Regular Season - 33, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Arka Gdynia 1.73 xG and Nieciecza 1.13 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Nieciecza outscored their 1.13 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arka Gdynia attack 0.88 / defence 1.10 against Nieciecza attack 0.89 / defence 1.42, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Arka Gdynia 50% | Draw 26% | Nieciecza 24%, with Arka Gdynia to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Nieciecza win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arka Gdynia 59%, Nieciecza 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Arka Gdynia's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Nieciecza's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Arka Gdynia 1.12 PPG, Nieciecza 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nieciecza win broke the near-deadlock. Arka Gdynia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nieciecza (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights