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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Arka Gdynia and Lechia Gdansk share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Arka Gdynia and Lechia Gdansk finished level at 2-2 at Stadion Miejski w Gdyni, Regular Season - 23, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Arka Gdynia 1.74 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.83 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arka Gdynia attack 1.05 / defence 1.12 against Lechia Gdansk attack 1.39 / defence 1.20, drawn from 21/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Arka Gdynia 36% | Draw 24% | Lechia Gdansk 40%, with Lechia Gdansk to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arka Gdynia 52%, Lechia Gdansk 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Arka Gdynia's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Arka Gdynia 1.19 PPG, Lechia Gdansk 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Arka Gdynia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights