🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Arka Gdynia cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Lech Poznan.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Arka Gdynia beat Lech Poznan 3-1 at Stadion Miejski w Gdyni, Regular Season - 15, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Arka Gdynia 1.11 xG and Lech Poznan 1.17 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Arka Gdynia beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arka Gdynia attack 0.88 / defence 0.91 against Lech Poznan attack 1.05 / defence 0.79, drawn from 14/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Arka Gdynia 32% | Draw 33% | Lech Poznan 35%, with Lech Poznan to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Arka Gdynia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arka Gdynia 50%, Lech Poznan 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Arka Gdynia's trading profile (14 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Lech Poznan's trading profile (14 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Lech Poznan arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.07. Form was overturned, with Arka Gdynia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Arka Gdynia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm. Lech Poznan (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights