Viking 5-1 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Viking at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Viking vs Haugesund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Haugesund travel to Lyse Arena to take on Viking. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 30 April 2025, 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Viking — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Viking have posted 8W 2D 0L at Lyse Arena — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Viking are significantly better at Lyse Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Haugesund have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Haugesund away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Viking are in the better shape of the two on current Eliteserien data — 0.70 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Viking, 3 for Haugesund and 1 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2024, ended 5–1 with Viking winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Viking in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Haugesund in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Viking 65% versus Haugesund 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Viking 60% | Haugesund 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 2.68 xG and Haugesund 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.420 / defence 1.210 | Haugesund attack 0.793 / defence 1.146. League average goals — home 1.647 / away 1.378. Viking carry an above-average attack strength of 1.420 — their λ of 2.68 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 35 Viking games / 34 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Viking 66% | Draw 17% | Haugesund 17%. Fair-value odds: Viking 1.52 | Draw 5.88 | Haugesund 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Viking (66%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 4.00. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 4.00 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.68 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Viking are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.00 combined xG gives a 76% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Viking 60% | Haugesund 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Lyse Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 30 Apr 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 66% | Draw 17% | Haugesund 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 68% | xG Viking 2.68 / Haugesund 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.420 / def 1.210 | Haugesund attack 0.793 / def 1.146 | league avg home 1.647 / away 1.378 • Poisson stance: Viking (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.68
Viking xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Haugesund xG
68%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Viking vs Haugesund kick off?
Viking vs Haugesund kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 30 April 2025 at Lyse Arena.
What was the final score in Viking vs Haugesund?
Viking 5 - 1 Haugesund.
Where is Viking vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Lyse Arena.
What competition is Viking vs Haugesund part of?
Viking vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 66% chance of winning, Haugesund a 17% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Viking and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Viking vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Haugesund?
Record (8 meetings): Viking 4W | Draws 1 | Haugesund 3W.
What form are Viking and Haugesund in?
Viking (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Haugesund (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Viking's attacking strength (1.42x league average) is weighed against Haugesund's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.68. The same calculation in reverse, Haugesund's attack versus Viking's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.7%. Close behind: 3-1 (7.8%), 1-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
66%
1.51
17%
5.92
17%
5.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.8%
Home win
2 – 0
6.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.68
Viking xG
Total xG
4.00
1.32
Haugesund xG
1.51
66%
Home win
5.92
17%
Draw
5.93
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.16
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
7%
14.60
Win to Nil
18%
5.67
1%
86.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 7.8 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are Viking and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 2.68 expected goals for Viking and 1.32 for Haugesund, a combined total of 4.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs Haugesund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Viking's recent record stands at 34W 13D 13L from 60 games, a 1.92 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five.
Haugesund, meanwhile, have gone 18W 13D 29L across 60 games — 1.12 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Viking by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Haugesund heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Viking have managed 20W 6D 4L from 30 games — 2.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Haugesund's away record stands at 5W 10D 15L across 30 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Viking come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Viking are averaging 2.03 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.03 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Current Season
Haugesund
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Viking and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 34W 13D 13L in their last 60 games (1.92 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 18W 13D 29L in their last 60 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Viking at home or Haugesund away?
Viking's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Viking at home: 2.20 PPG; Haugesund away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Viking and Haugesund runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Viking have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Apr 2022, when Viking won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Viking's record when hosting Haugesund specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Viking
1
Draws
3
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Haugesund?
From 10 meetings on record, Viking have won 6, Haugesund have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Viking and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2025, when Haugesund 1-4 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Viking and Haugesund?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Viking 73%, Haugesund 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Viking) and 50% (Haugesund). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Haugesund in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Viking play Haugesund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Viking's games and 50% of Haugesund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Viking vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Viking's matches and 50% of Haugesund's.
Do Viking and Haugesund tend to score early?
Viking have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Viking run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Haugesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Haugesund 5-1 at Lyse Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 2.68 xG and Haugesund 1.32 xG, a combined 4.00. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Viking beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.42 / defence 1.21 against Haugesund attack 0.79 / defence 1.15, drawn from 35/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Viking 66% | Draw 17% | Haugesund 17%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 60%, Haugesund 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Viking's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Haugesund's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.12. Form held, and they took the win. Viking (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.43 average — above their attacking norm. Haugesund (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.