Viking 3-2 Fredrikstad – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Viking (69%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Viking face Fredrikstad.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
SR-Bank Arena plays host to Viking versus Fredrikstad in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Saturday 17 October 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Viking have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Viking's home record at SR-Bank Arena: 10W 0D 0L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.30 — Viking are significantly better at SR-Bank Arena than their overall form suggests.
Fredrikstad (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Fredrikstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Fredrikstad have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Viking. A 0.80 PPG lead over Fredrikstad (2.30 vs 1.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Viking have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Fredrikstad in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Viking 3W, Fredrikstad 1W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2026, ended 2–1 with Viking winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Viking half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Fredrikstad half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Viking 67% versus Fredrikstad 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Viking 75% | Fredrikstad 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 2.65 xG and Fredrikstad 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.628 / defence 0.830 | Fredrikstad attack 0.901 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.779 / away 1.461. Viking carry an above-average attack strength of 1.628 — their λ of 2.65 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 52 Viking games / 52 Fredrikstad games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Viking 69% | Draw 18% | Fredrikstad 12%. Fair-value odds: Viking 1.45 | Draw 5.56 | Fredrikstad 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Viking (69%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.74. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.74 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.65 / 1.09) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Viking at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 72% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Viking 70% | Fredrikstad 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs Fredrikstad | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: SR-Bank Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 69% | Draw 18% | Fredrikstad 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 63% | xG Viking 2.65 / Fredrikstad 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.628 / def 0.830 | Fredrikstad attack 0.901 / def 0.915 | league avg home 1.779 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: Viking (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.65
Viking xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Fredrikstad xG
63%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Viking vs Fredrikstad kick off?
Viking vs Fredrikstad kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at SR-Bank Arena.
What was the final score in Viking vs Fredrikstad?
Viking 3 - 2 Fredrikstad.
Where is Viking vs Fredrikstad being played?
The match is being played at SR-Bank Arena.
What competition is Viking vs Fredrikstad part of?
Viking vs Fredrikstad is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs Fredrikstad?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 69% chance of winning, Fredrikstad a 12% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs Fredrikstad?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Viking and Fredrikstad will score (BTTS).
Will Viking vs Fredrikstad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Fredrikstad?
Record (5 meetings): Viking 3W | Draws 1 | Fredrikstad 1W.
What form are Viking and Fredrikstad in?
Viking (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Fredrikstad (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Viking's attack at 1.63x the league average against Fredrikstad's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 2.65 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fredrikstad's attack (0.90x) against Viking's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (8.3%), 3-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
69%
1.44
18%
5.46
12%
8.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.3%
Home win
3 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.65
Viking xG
Total xG
3.74
1.09
Fredrikstad xG
1.44
69%
Home win
5.46
18%
Draw
8.17
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
7%
14.15
Win to Nil
23%
4.29
1%
115.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.3 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs Fredrikstad?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Viking and Fredrikstad expected to score?
The model projects 2.65 expected goals for Viking and 1.09 for Fredrikstad, a combined total of 3.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs Fredrikstad?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Viking's recent record stands at 39W 7D 6L from 52 games, a 2.38 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fredrikstad, meanwhile, have gone 19W 14D 19L across 52 games — 1.37 PPG, with W-L-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Fredrikstad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Viking by 1.01 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Fredrikstad heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Viking have managed 22W 2D 1L from 25 games — 2.72 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fredrikstad's away record stands at 7W 7D 11L across 25 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Viking come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Viking are averaging 2.56 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Fredrikstad are on 1.23 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Blended
Fredrikstad
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Viking and Fredrikstad in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 39W 7D 6L in their last 52 games (2.38 PPG), while Fredrikstad have gone 19W 14D 19L in their last 52 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Viking at home or Fredrikstad away?
Viking's home record (2.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Viking at home: 2.72 PPG; Fredrikstad away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Viking or Fredrikstad been keeping clean sheets recently?
Viking have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Fredrikstad in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 17 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Viking go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Viking won 3-0 on 22 Jun 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Viking have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Fredrikstad — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Viking
1
Draws
1
Fredrikstad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Fredrikstad?
From 6 meetings on record, Viking have won 4, Fredrikstad have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Viking and Fredrikstad last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2026, when Viking 3-2 Fredrikstad.
Who has won more matches between Viking and Fredrikstad?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Fredrikstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Viking 64%, Fredrikstad 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 88% for Viking and 48% for Fredrikstad. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Viking keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Fredrikstad in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / Fredrikstad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Viking play Fredrikstad?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Viking's recent matches and 44% of Fredrikstad's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Viking vs Fredrikstad usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 88% of Viking's matches and 48% of Fredrikstad's.
Do Viking and Fredrikstad tend to score early?
Viking have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Fredrikstad in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Viking edge out Fredrikstad 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Fredrikstad 3-2 at SR-Bank Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 2.65 xG and Fredrikstad 1.09 xG, a combined 3.74. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Fredrikstad outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.63 / defence 0.83 against Fredrikstad attack 0.90 / defence 0.92, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Viking 69% | Draw 18% | Fredrikstad 12%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 69%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 75%, Fredrikstad 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Viking's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Fredrikstad's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.37. That form edge translated into the three points. Viking (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fredrikstad (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.