Sandefjord 0-2 Lillestrom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandefjord vs Lillestrom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Lillestrom travel to Sandefjord Arena to take on Sandefjord. The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 October 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sandefjord have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandefjord at Sandefjord Arena this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sandefjord Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lillestrom stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lillestrom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lillestrom away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Sandefjord) versus 1.10 (Lillestrom). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Sandefjord's 30% rate and Lillestrom's 20% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Lillestrom have the better historical record — 6 wins from 9 previous contests against 2 for Sandefjord.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2026, ended 1–3 with Lillestrom winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Lillestrom have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Sandefjord trading profile (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Lillestrom trading profile (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandefjord 50% versus Lillestrom 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandefjord 46% | Lillestrom 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.27 xG and Lillestrom 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 0.760 / defence 0.794 | Lillestrom attack 0.734 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.759 / away 1.503. Sandefjord's attack strength of 0.760 is below the league average — the 1.27 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sandefjord's defence rating of 0.794 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 Sandefjord games / 22 Lillestrom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 44% | Draw 33% | Lillestrom 23%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 2.27 | Draw 3.03 | Lillestrom 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sandefjord at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sandefjord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sandefjord 30% | Lillestrom 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Lillestrom | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Sandefjord Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 44% | Draw 33% | Lillestrom 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Sandefjord 1.27 / Lillestrom 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 0.760 / def 0.794 | Lillestrom attack 0.734 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.759 / away 1.503 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Lillestrom xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Lillestrom kick off?
Sandefjord vs Lillestrom kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 18 October 2026 at Sandefjord Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Lillestrom?
Sandefjord 0 - 2 Lillestrom.
Where is Sandefjord vs Lillestrom being played?
The match is being played at Sandefjord Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Lillestrom part of?
Sandefjord vs Lillestrom is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Lillestrom?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 44% chance of winning, Lillestrom a 23% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Lillestrom?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Sandefjord and Lillestrom will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Lillestrom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Lillestrom?
Record (9 meetings): Sandefjord 2W | Draws 1 | Lillestrom 6W.
What form are Sandefjord and Lillestrom in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-W-D. Lillestrom (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sandefjord's attack rating (0.76) and Lillestrom's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lillestrom's attack versus Sandefjord's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
44%
2.30
33%
3.04
23%
4.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
2.15
0.88
Lillestrom xG
2.30
44%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
4.26
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
18%
5.51
7%
15.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 10.2 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.0 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Lillestrom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Lillestrom expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Sandefjord and 0.88 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Lillestrom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sandefjord come into this having played 22 games, going 6W 6D 10L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-D. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lillestrom sit at 1.50 PPG from 22 outings (10W 3D 9L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Lillestrom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lillestrom carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Sandefjord — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sandefjord's home form reads 3W 5D 3L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Lillestrom have taken 1.55 points per game from 11 outings (5W 2D 4L).
The Goals Picture
Sandefjord are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Lillestrom are on 1.36 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Blended
Lillestrom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Lillestrom in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 6W 6D 10L in their last 22 games (1.09 PPG), while Lillestrom have gone 10W 3D 9L in their last 22 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Lillestrom away?
Lillestrom's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.27 PPG; Lillestrom away: 1.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sandefjord and Lillestrom runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 18 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Lillestrom have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 May 2022, when Lillestrom won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sandefjord's record when hosting Lillestrom specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sandefjord
1
Draws
7
Lillestrom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Lillestrom?
From 10 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 2, Lillestrom have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Lillestrom last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2026, when Sandefjord 0-2 Lillestrom.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Lillestrom?
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sandefjord see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Lillestrom see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Sandefjord 27% BTTS, Lillestrom 27%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 27% for Sandefjord and 36% for Lillestrom.
On the defensive side: Sandefjord keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Lillestrom in 36%; Sandefjord have failed to score in 46% of games; Lillestrom in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Lillestrom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Lillestrom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Sandefjord's recent matches and 27% of Lillestrom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sandefjord vs Lillestrom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Sandefjord's recent games and 36% of Lillestrom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Lillestrom cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Sandefjord.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lillestrom beat Sandefjord 0-2 at Sandefjord Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.27 xG and Lillestrom 0.88 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Sandefjord fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Lillestrom outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 0.76 / defence 0.79 against Lillestrom attack 0.73 / defence 0.95, drawn from 52/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 44% | Draw 33% | Lillestrom 23%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Lillestrom win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 46%, Lillestrom 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lillestrom's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Lillestrom arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.09. That form edge translated into the three points. Sandefjord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lillestrom (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.