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Dominant Viking run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Fredrikstad.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Viking beat Fredrikstad 3-0 at Lyse Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 2.29 xG and Fredrikstad 1.24 xG, a combined 3.53. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Fredrikstad landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.43 / defence 0.98 against Fredrikstad attack 0.88 / defence 1.00, drawn from 42/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Viking 61% | Draw 19% | Fredrikstad 20%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 60%, Fredrikstad 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Viking's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Fredrikstad's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Viking 1.90 PPG, Fredrikstad 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Viking win broke the near-deadlock. Viking (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Fredrikstad (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights