Viking 3-0 Fredrikstad – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Viking at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Viking vs Fredrikstad fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lyse Arena plays host to Viking versus Fredrikstad in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Sunday 22 June 2025 at 18:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Viking have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Viking's home record at Lyse Arena: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Viking are significantly better at Lyse Arena than their overall form suggests.
Fredrikstad (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: L D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Fredrikstad have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.10 PPG for Viking against 2.00 for Fredrikstad. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Viking 0W, Fredrikstad 1W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2024, ended 2–3 with Fredrikstad winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Viking half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Fredrikstad half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Viking 67% versus Fredrikstad 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Viking 60% | Fredrikstad 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 2.29 xG and Fredrikstad 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.433 / defence 0.984 | Fredrikstad attack 0.881 / defence 0.996. League average goals — home 1.602 / away 1.436. Viking carry an above-average attack strength of 1.433 — their λ of 2.29 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 42 Viking games / 40 Fredrikstad games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Viking 61% | Draw 19% | Fredrikstad 20%. Fair-value odds: Viking 1.64 | Draw 5.26 | Fredrikstad 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Viking (61%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.29 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Viking at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.53 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Viking 60% | Fredrikstad 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs Fredrikstad | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Lyse Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Jun 2025, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 61% | Draw 19% | Fredrikstad 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 64% | xG Viking 2.29 / Fredrikstad 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.433 / def 0.984 | Fredrikstad attack 0.881 / def 0.996 | league avg home 1.602 / away 1.436 • Poisson stance: Viking (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.29
Viking xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Fredrikstad xG
64%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Viking vs Fredrikstad kick off?
Viking vs Fredrikstad kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 22 June 2025 at Lyse Arena.
What was the final score in Viking vs Fredrikstad?
Viking 3 - 0 Fredrikstad.
Where is Viking vs Fredrikstad being played?
The match is being played at Lyse Arena.
What competition is Viking vs Fredrikstad part of?
Viking vs Fredrikstad is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs Fredrikstad?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 61% chance of winning, Fredrikstad a 20% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs Fredrikstad?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Viking and Fredrikstad will score (BTTS).
Will Viking vs Fredrikstad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Fredrikstad?
Record (2 meetings): Viking 0W | Draws 1 | Fredrikstad 1W.
What form are Viking and Fredrikstad in?
Viking (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Fredrikstad (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Viking's attack at 1.43x the league average against Fredrikstad's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 2.29 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fredrikstad's attack (0.88x) against Viking's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 42/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
61%
1.65
19%
5.14
20%
5.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
2 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.29
Viking xG
Total xG
3.53
1.24
Fredrikstad xG
1.65
61%
Home win
5.14
19%
Draw
5.05
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
10%
9.83
Win to Nil
18%
5.71
2%
49.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 8.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs Fredrikstad?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Viking and Fredrikstad expected to score?
The model projects 2.29 expected goals for Viking and 1.24 for Fredrikstad, a combined total of 3.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs Fredrikstad?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Viking's recent record stands at 16W 9D 5L from 30 games, a 1.90 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five.
Fredrikstad, meanwhile, have gone 14W 9D 7L across 30 games — 1.70 PPG, with L-D-D-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.90 PPG for Viking against 1.70 for Fredrikstad. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Viking have managed 10W 4D 1L from 15 games — 2.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fredrikstad's away record stands at 7W 3D 5L across 15 trips, a 1.60 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Viking come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Viking are averaging 2.03 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Fredrikstad are on 1.30 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Fredrikstad in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Current Season
Fredrikstad
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Viking and Fredrikstad in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 16W 9D 5L in their last 30 games (1.90 PPG), while Fredrikstad have gone 14W 9D 7L in their last 30 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Viking at home or Fredrikstad away?
Viking's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Viking at home: 2.27 PPG; Fredrikstad away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Viking or Fredrikstad been keeping clean sheets recently?
Viking have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Fredrikstad in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Viking go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Viking won 3-0 on 22 Jun 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Viking have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Fredrikstad — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Viking
1
Draws
1
Fredrikstad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Fredrikstad?
From 5 meetings on record, Viking have won 3, Fredrikstad have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Viking and Fredrikstad last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Fredrikstad 1-2 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Viking and Fredrikstad?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Fredrikstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Viking 67%, Fredrikstad 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Viking) and 40% (Fredrikstad).
On the defensive side: Viking keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Fredrikstad in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / Fredrikstad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Viking play Fredrikstad?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Viking's recent matches and 40% of Fredrikstad's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Viking vs Fredrikstad usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Viking's recent games and 40% of Fredrikstad's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Viking and Fredrikstad tend to score early?
Viking have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Fredrikstad in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Viking run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Fredrikstad.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Fredrikstad 3-0 at Lyse Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 2.29 xG and Fredrikstad 1.24 xG, a combined 3.53. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Fredrikstad landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.43 / defence 0.98 against Fredrikstad attack 0.88 / defence 1.00, drawn from 42/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Viking 61% | Draw 19% | Fredrikstad 20%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 60%, Fredrikstad 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Viking's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Fredrikstad's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Viking 1.90 PPG, Fredrikstad 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Viking win broke the near-deadlock. Viking (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Fredrikstad (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.