Viking 1-1 Brann – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Brann at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Viking vs Brann encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
SR-Bank Arena plays host to Viking versus Brann in Eliteserien (matchday 3). Kick-off: Sunday 14 April 2024 at 14:30 UK time.
Current Form
Viking's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Viking's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Viking are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Brann (all games): 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 — 2.50 points per game. Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Brann have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Brann arrive in superior form — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record in our data favours Viking, who have won 4 of the 4 H2H matches we hold against Brann — Brann have 0 wins, with 0 draws.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 30 Jul 2023, ended Viking 2–0 Brann — a Viking win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Viking and goals — 4 wins from 4 H2H matches and an average of 3.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Viking — key trading statistics (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Brann — key trading statistics (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 93% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Viking 63% and Brann 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Viking 60% | Brann 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 1.48 xG and Brann 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.037 / defence 0.969 | Brann attack 1.256 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.371 / away 1.363. Brann have an above-average attack rating of 1.256, which lifts their away xG to 1.66. Data: built from Viking's last 32 games and Brann's last 32. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Viking 34% | Draw 24% | Brann 42%. Fair-value odds: Viking 2.91 | Draw 4.24 | Brann 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.48 / 1.66) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
Viking have the better head-to-head record in our data (4 wins to 0), yet Brann are the in-form side right now — head-to-head edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Brann at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Brann if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.14 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Viking's last 10 home games and Brann's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Viking 80% (last 10 home games) | Brann 40% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Viking 32 games, Brann 32) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 3 | Venue: SR-Bank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 14 April 2024 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 34% | Draw 24% | Brann 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Viking 1.48 / Brann 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.037 / def 0.969 | Brann attack 1.256 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.371 / away 1.363 • Poisson stance: Brann (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Viking xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Brann xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Viking vs Brann FAQs
What time does Viking vs Brann kick off?
Viking vs Brann kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 14 April 2024 at SR-Bank Arena.
What was the final score in Viking vs Brann?
Viking 1 - 1 Brann.
Where is Viking vs Brann being played?
The match is being played at SR-Bank Arena.
What competition is Viking vs Brann part of?
Viking vs Brann is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 3) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 34% chance of winning, Brann a 42% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Viking and Brann will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Viking vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Viking's attack at 1.04x the league average against Brann's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Brann's attack (1.26x) against Viking's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.66.
These ratings are built from Viking's last 32 games and Brann's last 32, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
34%
2.91
24%
4.24
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Viking xG
Total xG
3.14
1.66
Brann xG
2.91
34%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
19%
5.25
23%
4.39
Win to Nil
7%
15.28
10%
10.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 7.2 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.6 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.9 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Viking vs Brann Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Viking and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Viking and 1.66 for Brann, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs Brann?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Viking's recent record stands at 18W 4D 8L from 30 games, a 1.93 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five.
Brann, meanwhile, have gone 19W 4D 7L across 30 games — 2.03 PPG, with D-W-W-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.93 PPG for Viking against 2.03 for Brann. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Viking have managed 10W 2D 3L from their last 15 home games — 2.13 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Brann's away record stands at 7W 2D 6L across their last 15 away games, a 1.53 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.03 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Brann's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Viking come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Viking are averaging 2.03 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Brann are on 1.83 scored and 1.17 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Viking have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Current Season
Brann
Current Season
Viking (Home) vs Brann (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Viking
Current Season
Brann
Current Season
❓ Viking vs Brann Form FAQs
What form are Viking and Brann in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 18W 4D 8L in their last 30 games (1.93 PPG), while Brann have gone 19W 4D 7L in their last 30 (2.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Viking at home or Brann away?
Viking's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Viking at home: 2.13 PPG; Brann away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Viking or Brann been keeping clean sheets recently?
Viking have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Brann in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was as recently as 9 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Viking have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Viking won Viking 3-0 Brann on 5 Oct 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Viking have gone 4W 1D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Brann — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Viking
2
Draws
1
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Viking vs Brann H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Brann?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Viking have won 7, Brann have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Viking and Brann last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 October 2026: Brann 0-2 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Viking and Brann?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Viking 80%, Brann 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Viking) and 47% (Brann). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Brann in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Viking vs Brann Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Viking and Brann matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Viking's games and 47% of Brann's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Viking and Brann matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Viking's matches and 47% of Brann's.
Do Viking and Brann matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Viking's recent matches and 93% of Brann's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Viking and Brann share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking and Brann finished level at 1-1 at SR-Bank Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 1.48 xG and Brann 1.66 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.04 / defence 0.97 against Brann attack 1.26 / defence 1.04, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Viking 34% | Draw 24% | Brann 42%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 60%, Brann 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Viking's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Brann's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Viking 1.93 PPG, Brann 2.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Viking (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.