Viking 5-0 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Viking at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Viking vs Bodo/Glimt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bodo/Glimt make the trip to Lyse Arena to face Viking in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Saturday 11 April 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Viking (all games): 8W 2D 0L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Viking's form when playing at home: 9W 0D 1L across 10 games at Lyse Arena this term (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lyse Arena.
Bodo/Glimt have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bodo/Glimt's away record: 8W 1D 1L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.60 vs 2.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Viking, 4 for Bodo/Glimt and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.6 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Jul 2025, ended 2–4 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Viking — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Viking 68% and Bodo/Glimt 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Viking 68% | Bodo/Glimt 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 1.76 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.392 / defence 0.889 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.272 / defence 0.786. League average goals — home 1.608 / away 1.428. Viking carry an above-average attack strength of 1.392 — their λ of 1.76 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Bodo/Glimt's defence strength of 0.786 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack strength of 1.272 — the away xG of 1.61 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 33 Viking games / 31 Bodo/Glimt games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Viking 42% | Draw 23% | Bodo/Glimt 36%. Fair-value odds: Viking 2.38 | Draw 4.35 | Bodo/Glimt 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.76 / 1.61) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Viking are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Viking if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.37 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Viking 50% | Bodo/Glimt 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Lyse Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Apr 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 42% | Draw 23% | Bodo/Glimt 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG Viking 1.76 / Bodo/Glimt 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.392 / def 0.889 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.272 / def 0.786 | league avg home 1.608 / away 1.428 • Poisson stance: Viking (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Viking xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Bodo/Glimt xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Viking vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Viking vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Lyse Arena.
What was the final score in Viking vs Bodo/Glimt?
Viking 5 - 0 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is Viking vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Lyse Arena.
What competition is Viking vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Viking vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 42% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 36% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Viking and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will Viking vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Bodo/Glimt?
Record (8 meetings): Viking 3W | Draws 1 | Bodo/Glimt 4W.
What form are Viking and Bodo/Glimt in?
Viking (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Viking's attacking strength (1.39x league average) is weighed against Bodo/Glimt's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. Flip it around — Bodo/Glimt's attack (1.27x) against Viking's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
The sample (33/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
42%
2.40
23%
4.41
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Viking xG
Total xG
3.37
1.61
Bodo/Glimt xG
2.40
42%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.97
Clean Sheet
20%
5.03
17%
5.81
Win to Nil
8%
12.07
6%
16.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 9.7 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.6 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Viking and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Viking and 1.61 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs Bodo/Glimt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Viking have picked up 2.13 PPG on a 38W 14D 8L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Bodo/Glimt's form line: 40W 12D 8L from 60 games, 2.20 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.13 PPG for Viking against 2.20 for Bodo/Glimt. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Viking have posted 2.40 PPG from 30 outings (22W 6D 2L).
On the road, Bodo/Glimt have gone 18W 7D 5L from 30 away games — 2.03 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Viking are averaging 2.30 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 2.60 scored and 0.98 conceded. Viking's scoring rate against Bodo/Glimt's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Viking have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Defensively: Bodo/Glimt in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Current Season
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Viking and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 38W 14D 8L in their last 60 games (2.13 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 40W 12D 8L in their last 60 (2.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Viking at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Viking's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Viking at home: 2.40 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.03 PPG.
Have Viking or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Viking have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 30 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Viking won 5-0 on 11 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Viking have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bodo/Glimt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Viking
1
Draws
5
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Bodo/Glimt?
From 10 meetings on record, Viking have won 4, Bodo/Glimt have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Viking and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 30 October 2026, when Bodo/Glimt 3-2 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Viking and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Viking 63%, Bodo/Glimt 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Viking and 60% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Viking keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Bodo/Glimt in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Viking play Bodo/Glimt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Viking's games and 63% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Viking vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Viking's matches and 60% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Viking and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
Viking have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Viking run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Bodo/Glimt.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Bodo/Glimt 5-0 at Lyse Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 1.76 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.61 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Viking beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bodo/Glimt landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.39 / defence 0.89 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.27 / defence 0.79, drawn from 33/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Viking 42% | Draw 23% | Bodo/Glimt 36%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 68%, Bodo/Glimt 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Viking's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Viking 2.13 PPG, Bodo/Glimt 2.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Viking win broke the near-deadlock. Viking (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.57 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.