Viking 5-0 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Viking at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Viking face Bodo/Glimt.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bodo/Glimt make the trip to Lyse Arena to face Viking in Eliteserien (matchday 4). The match kicks off on Saturday 11 April 2026 at 17:00 UK time.
Form
Viking (all games): 8W 2D 0L across their last 10 — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Viking's form when playing at home: 9W 0D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Bodo/Glimt have collected 2.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bodo/Glimt's away record over their last 10 away games: 8W 1D 1L (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.60 vs 2.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 8 H2H matches in our data, Bodo/Glimt edge it 4 wins to 3, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.6 per game across the 8 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 19 Jul 2025, ended Viking 2–4 Bodo/Glimt — a Bodo/Glimt win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.6 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Viking — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Viking 68% and Bodo/Glimt 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Viking 68% | Bodo/Glimt 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 1.76 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.392 / defence 0.889 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.272 / defence 0.786. League average goals — home 1.608 / away 1.428. Viking carry an above-average attack rating of 1.392 — their 1.76 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Bodo/Glimt bring a tight defence (rating 0.786, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Viking's projected output down. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack rating of 1.272, which lifts their away xG to 1.61. Data: built from Viking's last 33 games and Bodo/Glimt's last 31. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Viking 42% | Draw 23% | Bodo/Glimt 36%. Fair-value odds: Viking 2.40 | Draw 4.41 | Bodo/Glimt 2.81. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (1.76 / 1.61) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Viking are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Viking if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.37 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Viking's last 10 home games and Bodo/Glimt's last 10 away games) averaging 3.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.6 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Viking 50% (last 10 home games) | Bodo/Glimt 80% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Viking 33 games, Bodo/Glimt 31) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 4 | Venue: Lyse Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 11 April 2026 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 42% | Draw 23% | Bodo/Glimt 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% (Under 34%) | BTTS Yes 66% (No 34%) | xG Viking 1.76 / Bodo/Glimt 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.392 / def 0.889 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.272 / def 0.786 | league avg home 1.608 / away 1.428 • Poisson stance: Viking (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Viking xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Bodo/Glimt xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Viking vs Bodo/Glimt FAQs
What time does Viking vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Viking vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Lyse Arena.
What was the final score in Viking vs Bodo/Glimt?
Viking 5 - 0 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is Viking vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Lyse Arena.
What competition is Viking vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Viking vs Bodo/Glimt is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 4) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 42% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 36% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Viking and Bodo/Glimt will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Viking vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Viking's attacking strength (1.39x league average) is weighed against Bodo/Glimt's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. Flip it around — Bodo/Glimt's attack (1.27x) against Viking's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from Viking's last 33 games and Bodo/Glimt's last 31, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
42%
2.40
23%
4.41
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Viking xG
Total xG
3.37
1.61
Bodo/Glimt xG
2.40
42%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.97
Clean Sheet
20%
5.03
17%
5.81
Win to Nil
8%
12.07
6%
16.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 9.7 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.6 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Viking vs Bodo/Glimt Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Viking and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Viking and 1.61 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs Bodo/Glimt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Viking have picked up 2.13 PPG on a 38W 14D 8L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Bodo/Glimt's form line: 40W 12D 8L from 60 games, 2.20 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.13 PPG for Viking against 2.20 for Bodo/Glimt. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Viking have posted 2.40 PPG from their last 30 home games (22W 6D 2L).
On the road, Bodo/Glimt have gone 18W 7D 5L from their last 30 away games — 2.03 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Viking are averaging 2.30 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 2.60 scored and 0.98 conceded. Viking's scoring rate against Bodo/Glimt's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Viking have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Defensively: Bodo/Glimt in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Current Season
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
Viking (Home) vs Bodo/Glimt (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Viking
Current Season
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
❓ Viking vs Bodo/Glimt Form FAQs
What form are Viking and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 38W 14D 8L in their last 60 games (2.13 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 40W 12D 8L in their last 60 (2.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Viking at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Viking's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Viking at home: 2.40 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.03 PPG.
Have Viking or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Viking have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was as recently as 30 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Viking won Viking 5-0 Bodo/Glimt on 11 Apr 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Viking have gone 3W 1D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Bodo/Glimt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Viking
1
Draws
5
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Viking vs Bodo/Glimt H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Bodo/Glimt?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Viking have won 4, Bodo/Glimt have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Viking and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 October 2026: Bodo/Glimt 3-2 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Viking and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Viking 63%, Bodo/Glimt 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Viking and 60% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Viking keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Bodo/Glimt in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Viking vs Bodo/Glimt Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Viking and Bodo/Glimt matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Viking's games and 63% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Viking and Bodo/Glimt matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Viking's matches and 60% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Viking and Bodo/Glimt matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Viking's recent matches and 77% of Bodo/Glimt's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Viking run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Bodo/Glimt.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Bodo/Glimt 5-0 at Lyse Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 1.76 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.61 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Viking beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bodo/Glimt landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.39 / defence 0.89 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.27 / defence 0.79, drawn from 33/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Viking 42% | Draw 23% | Bodo/Glimt 36%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 68%, Bodo/Glimt 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Viking's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Viking 2.13 PPG, Bodo/Glimt 2.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Viking win broke the near-deadlock. Viking (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.57 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.