Kristiansund BK 0-3 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kristiansund BK at 40%, yet in-form Bodo/Glimt provide a compelling counter-argument — this Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 3 as Kristiansund BK welcome Bodo/Glimt to Kristiansund Stadion. Kick-off is set for Monday 6 April 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Kristiansund BK have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Kristiansund BK's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Kristiansund Stadion this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bodo/Glimt — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Bodo/Glimt have posted 8W 1D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Bodo/Glimt's 2.50 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Kristiansund BK's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Bodo/Glimt have the better historical record — 8 wins from 9 previous contests against 0 for Kristiansund BK.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2025, ended 1–7 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bodo/Glimt have won 8 of 9 previous encounters, and at 4.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Kristiansund BK in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Bodo/Glimt in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kristiansund BK 58% versus Bodo/Glimt 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kristiansund BK 54% | Bodo/Glimt 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kristiansund BK 1.76 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kristiansund BK attack 1.069 / defence 1.125 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.161 / defence 0.945. League average goals — home 1.739 / away 1.306. Data: 30 Kristiansund BK games / 30 Bodo/Glimt games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 40% | Draw 22% | Bodo/Glimt 38%. Fair-value odds: Kristiansund BK 2.50 | Draw 4.55 | Bodo/Glimt 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.76 / 1.71) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Kristiansund BK as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bodo/Glimt (2.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kristiansund BK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.46 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.1 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kristiansund BK 70% | Bodo/Glimt 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Kristiansund Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 6 Apr 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 40% | Draw 22% | Bodo/Glimt 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 68% | xG Kristiansund BK 1.76 / Bodo/Glimt 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Kristiansund BK attack 1.069 / def 1.125 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.161 / def 0.945 | league avg home 1.739 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: Kristiansund BK (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Kristiansund BK xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Bodo/Glimt xG
68%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 15:00 on Monday 6 April 2026 at Kristiansund Stadion.
What was the final score in Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt?
Kristiansund BK 0 - 3 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Kristiansund Stadion.
What competition is Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Kristiansund BK a 40% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 38% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Kristiansund BK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Kristiansund BK and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Bodo/Glimt?
Record (9 meetings): Kristiansund BK 0W | Draws 1 | Bodo/Glimt 8W.
What form are Kristiansund BK and Bodo/Glimt in?
Kristiansund BK (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kristiansund BK's attack at 1.07x the league average against Bodo/Glimt's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.76 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bodo/Glimt's attack versus Kristiansund BK's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (30/30 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kristiansund BK Win
40%
2.51
22%
4.46
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Kristiansund BK xG
Total xG
3.46
1.71
Bodo/Glimt xG
2.51
40%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.10
Clean Sheet
18%
5.51
17%
5.79
Win to Nil
7%
13.83
7%
15.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 5.4 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 9.4 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.3 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Kristiansund BK and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Kristiansund BK and 1.71 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kristiansund BK's recent record stands at 17W 17D 25L from 59 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Bodo/Glimt, meanwhile, have gone 39W 12D 8L across 59 games — 2.19 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bodo/Glimt by 1.04 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kristiansund BK heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Kristiansund BK have managed 10W 9D 10L from 29 games — 1.34 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bodo/Glimt's away record stands at 17W 7D 5L across 29 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kristiansund BK are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 2.61 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Bodo/Glimt in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kristiansund BK
Current Season
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kristiansund BK and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Kristiansund BK have gone 17W 17D 25L in their last 59 games (1.15 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 39W 12D 8L in their last 59 (2.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kristiansund BK at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kristiansund BK at home: 1.34 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Kristiansund BK or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kristiansund BK have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Bodo/Glimt have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Sep 2025, when Bodo/Glimt won 7-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kristiansund BK's record when hosting Bodo/Glimt specifically: 0W 1D 5L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Kristiansund BK
1
Draws
9
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Bodo/Glimt?
From 10 meetings on record, Kristiansund BK have won 0, Bodo/Glimt have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kristiansund BK and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Kristiansund BK 0-3 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Kristiansund BK and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kristiansund BK 59%, Bodo/Glimt 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Kristiansund BK and 62% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt in 31%; Kristiansund BK have failed to score in 34% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kristiansund BK home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kristiansund BK play Bodo/Glimt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Kristiansund BK's games and 66% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kristiansund BK vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Kristiansund BK's matches and 62% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Kristiansund BK and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
Kristiansund BK have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bodo/Glimt run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Kristiansund BK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Kristiansund BK 0-3 at Kristiansund Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kristiansund BK 1.76 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.71 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Kristiansund BK fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Bodo/Glimt outscored their 1.71 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kristiansund BK attack 1.07 / defence 1.12 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.16 / defence 0.94, drawn from 30/30 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Kristiansund BK 40% | Draw 22% | Bodo/Glimt 38%, with Kristiansund BK to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Bodo/Glimt win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kristiansund BK 54%, Bodo/Glimt 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.19 PPG against 1.15. That form edge translated into the three points. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.