Valerenga 0-1 Viking – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Valerenga at 49%, yet in-form Viking provide a compelling counter-argument — this Valerenga vs Viking fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Valerenga host Viking at Intility Arena in Eliteserien (matchday 3). Kick-off is Monday 6 April 2026 at 13:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Valerenga — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Valerenga's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Valerenga are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Viking have recorded 8W 2D 0L — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Viking have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.10 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Viking's 2.60 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Valerenga's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Valerenga's last 10 home games and Viking's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 9 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Valerenga, 3 for Viking and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.9 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 30 Nov 2025, ended Valerenga 1–5 Viking — a Viking win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.9 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Valerenga in-play tendencies (last 29 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Viking in-play tendencies (last 29 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 71%; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Valerenga 66% and Viking 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Valerenga 59% | Viking 76%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Valerenga surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Viking have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 71% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valerenga 1.63 xG and Viking 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valerenga attack 0.971 / defence 0.818 | Viking attack 1.068 / defence 0.944. League average goals — home 1.780 / away 1.310. Data: built from Valerenga's last 31 games and Viking's last 32. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Valerenga 49% | Draw 25% | Viking 27%. Fair-value odds: Valerenga 2.05 | Draw 4.07 | Viking 3.74. Valerenga hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Valerenga are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Viking (2.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Valerenga offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Valerenga's last 10 home games and Viking's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.9 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Valerenga 70% (last 10 home games) | Viking 80% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Valerenga 31 games, Viking 32) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valerenga vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 3 | Venue: Intility Arena • Kick-off: Monday 6 April 2026 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valerenga 49% | Draw 25% | Viking 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Valerenga 1.63 / Viking 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Valerenga attack 0.971 / def 0.818 | Viking attack 1.068 / def 0.944 | league avg home 1.780 / away 1.310 • Poisson stance: Valerenga (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Valerenga xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Viking xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Valerenga vs Viking FAQs
What time does Valerenga vs Viking kick off?
Valerenga vs Viking kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Monday 6 April 2026 at Intility Arena.
What was the final score in Valerenga vs Viking?
Valerenga 0 - 1 Viking.
Where is Valerenga vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Intility Arena.
What competition is Valerenga vs Viking part of?
Valerenga vs Viking is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 3) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Valerenga vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Valerenga a 49% chance of winning, Viking a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Valerenga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valerenga vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Valerenga and Viking will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Valerenga vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Valerenga's attack rating (0.97) and Viking's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Viking's attack versus Valerenga's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Valerenga's last 31 games and Viking's last 32, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valerenga Win
49%
2.05
25%
4.07
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Valerenga xG
Total xG
2.78
1.15
Viking xG
2.05
49%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
20%
5.11
Win to Nil
15%
6.46
5%
19.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.6 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Valerenga vs Viking Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Valerenga vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Valerenga and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Valerenga and 1.15 for Viking, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Valerenga vs Viking?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Valerenga come into this having played 29 games, going 12W 4D 13L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-L.
On the other side, Viking sit at 2.45 PPG from 29 outings (22W 5D 2L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five.
Viking carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.07 PPG clear of Valerenga — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Valerenga's home form reads 8W 3D 3L across their last 14 home games, a 1.93 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.38 PPG overall — Valerenga are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Viking have taken 2.36 points per game from their last 14 away games (10W 3D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Viking come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Valerenga are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 2.62 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valerenga have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Viking in 69%.
Last 29 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valerenga
Current Season
Viking
Current Season
Valerenga (Home) vs Viking (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Valerenga
Current Season
Viking
Current Season
❓ Valerenga vs Viking Form FAQs
What form are Valerenga and Viking in coming into this match?
Valerenga have gone 12W 4D 13L in their last 29 games (1.38 PPG), while Viking have gone 22W 5D 2L in their last 29 (2.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valerenga at home or Viking away?
Viking's away record (2.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valerenga at home: 1.93 PPG; Viking away: 2.36 PPG.
Have Valerenga or Viking been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valerenga have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Viking in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2020. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was on 6 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Viking have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 30 Nov 2025, when Viking won Viking 5-1 Valerenga.
Valerenga's record when hosting Viking specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Valerenga
3
Draws
4
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Valerenga vs Viking H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Viking?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Valerenga have won 3, Viking have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Valerenga and Viking last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 April 2026: Valerenga 0-1 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Valerenga and Viking?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Valerenga at 71%, Viking at 79%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Valerenga and 71% for Viking. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valerenga home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Valerenga vs Viking Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Valerenga and Viking matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Valerenga's games and 79% of Viking's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Valerenga and Viking matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Valerenga's matches and 71% of Viking's.
Do Valerenga and Viking matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Valerenga's recent matches and 86% of Viking's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Viking defy the odds to beat Valerenga 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Valerenga 0-1 at Intility Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valerenga 1.63 xG and Viking 1.15 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Valerenga fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valerenga attack 0.97 / defence 0.82 against Viking attack 1.07 / defence 0.94, drawn from 31/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Valerenga 49% | Draw 25% | Viking 27%, with Valerenga to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Viking win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valerenga 59%, Viking 76%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valerenga's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Viking's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 2.45 PPG against 1.38. That form edge translated into the three points. Valerenga (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Viking (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.