Valerenga 3-2 Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valerenga at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Valerenga face Sarpsborg 08 FF.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Valerenga welcome Sarpsborg 08 FF to Intility Arena in Eliteserien (matchday 9). Kick-off is Saturday 16 May 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Valerenga — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Valerenga have gone 7W 2D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Valerenga are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sarpsborg 08 FF away from home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Valerenga at 1.30 PPG versus Sarpsborg 08 FF's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Valerenga's games and 60% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's (from Valerenga's last 10 home games and Sarpsborg 08 FF's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 8 H2H matches, Valerenga have won 3, Sarpsborg 08 FF 3, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.5 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 17 Aug 2025, ended Valerenga 4–0 Sarpsborg 08 FF — a Valerenga win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Valerenga trading profile (last 29 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Sarpsborg 08 FF trading profile (last 29 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Valerenga 66% and Sarpsborg 08 FF 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valerenga 59% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 69%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Valerenga surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Sarpsborg 08 FF have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valerenga 1.50 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valerenga attack 0.787 / defence 1.067 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.866 / defence 1.101. League average goals — home 1.727 / away 1.158. Valerenga's attack rating of 0.787 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.50. Data: built from Valerenga's last 37 games and Sarpsborg 08 FF's last 38.
Result probabilities: Valerenga 47% | Draw 26% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 27%. Fair-value odds: Valerenga 2.13 | Draw 3.87 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 3.69. Valerenga hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Valerenga as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Valerenga offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Valerenga's last 10 home games and Sarpsborg 08 FF's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 8 H2H matches point the other way.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Valerenga 70% (last 10 home games) | Sarpsborg 08 FF 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valerenga vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 9 | Venue: Intility Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valerenga 47% | Draw 26% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Valerenga 1.50 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Valerenga attack 0.787 / def 1.067 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.866 / def 1.101 | league avg home 1.727 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Valerenga (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Valerenga xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Valerenga vs Sarpsborg 08 FF FAQs
What time does Valerenga vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
Valerenga vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 16 May 2026 at Intility Arena.
What was the final score in Valerenga vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Valerenga 3 - 2 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Where is Valerenga vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at Intility Arena.
What competition is Valerenga vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
Valerenga vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 9) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Valerenga vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives Valerenga a 47% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Valerenga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valerenga vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Valerenga and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Valerenga vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Valerenga's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. The same calculation in reverse, Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack versus Valerenga's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Valerenga's last 37 games and Sarpsborg 08 FF's last 38 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valerenga Win
47%
2.13
26%
3.87
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Valerenga xG
Total xG
2.57
1.07
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
16%
6.20
6%
16.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.3 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Valerenga vs Sarpsborg 08 FF Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Valerenga vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Valerenga and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Valerenga and 1.07 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Valerenga vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Valerenga's recent record stands at 12W 4D 13L from 29 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-L in the last five.
Sarpsborg 08 FF, meanwhile, have gone 10W 8D 11L across 29 games — 1.31 PPG, with W-L-L-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Valerenga on 1.38 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Valerenga have managed 8W 3D 3L from their last 14 home games — 1.93 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.38 PPG overall — Valerenga are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's away record stands at 5W 4D 5L across their last 14 away games, a 1.36 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valerenga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Valerenga are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 1.59 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valerenga have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Sarpsborg 08 FF in 66%.
Last 29 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valerenga
Current Season
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Current Season
Valerenga (Home) vs Sarpsborg 08 FF (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Valerenga
Current Season
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Current Season
❓ Valerenga vs Sarpsborg 08 FF Form FAQs
What form are Valerenga and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
Valerenga have gone 12W 4D 13L in their last 29 games (1.38 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 10W 8D 11L in their last 29 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valerenga at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
Valerenga's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valerenga at home: 1.93 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 5 years from July 2021. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was as recently as 6 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 Aug 2025, when Valerenga won Valerenga 4-0 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Valerenga's record when hosting Sarpsborg 08 FF specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Valerenga
3
Draws
3
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Valerenga vs Sarpsborg 08 FF H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Valerenga have won 4, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Valerenga and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 September 2026: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2-2 Valerenga.
Who has won more matches between Valerenga and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Valerenga have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Valerenga at 71%, Sarpsborg 08 FF at 64%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Valerenga and 79% for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sarpsborg 08 FF in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valerenga home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Valerenga vs Sarpsborg 08 FF Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Valerenga and Sarpsborg 08 FF matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Valerenga's games and 64% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Valerenga and Sarpsborg 08 FF matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Valerenga's matches and 79% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's.
Do Valerenga and Sarpsborg 08 FF matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Valerenga's recent matches and 71% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Valerenga edge out Sarpsborg 08 FF 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valerenga beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 3-2 at Intility Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valerenga 1.50 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.07 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Valerenga beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sarpsborg 08 FF outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valerenga attack 0.79 / defence 1.07 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.87 / defence 1.10, drawn from 37/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valerenga 47% | Draw 26% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 27%, with Valerenga to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valerenga 59%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valerenga's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valerenga 1.38 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valerenga win broke the near-deadlock. Valerenga (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.