Bodo/Glimt 5-0 Tromso – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bodo/Glimt at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Tromso make the trip to Aspmyra Stadion to face Bodo/Glimt in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Saturday 16 May 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bodo/Glimt have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 3.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bodo/Glimt at Aspmyra Stadion this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Aspmyra Stadion.
Tromso (all games): 7W 0D 3L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Tromso's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.50 PPG for Bodo/Glimt against 2.10 for Tromso. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Bodo/Glimt lead 3W to 3W over the last 9 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Bodo/Glimt half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Tromso half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodo/Glimt 57% versus Tromso 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bodo/Glimt 67% | Tromso 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 1.72 xG and Tromso 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.266 / defence 0.748 | Tromso attack 1.050 / defence 0.805. League average goals — home 1.683 / away 1.173. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.266 — their λ of 1.72 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Bodo/Glimt's defence rating of 0.748 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 37 Bodo/Glimt games / 40 Tromso games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 56% | Draw 24% | Tromso 20%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Tromso 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bodo/Glimt at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Bodo/Glimt 50% | Tromso 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 56% | Draw 24% | Tromso 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 49% | xG Bodo/Glimt 1.72 / Tromso 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.266 / def 0.748 | Tromso attack 1.050 / def 0.805 | league avg home 1.683 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Tromso xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 16 May 2026 at Aspmyra Stadion.
What was the final score in Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso?
Bodo/Glimt 5 - 0 Tromso.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 56% chance of winning, Tromso a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Tromso will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Tromso?
Record (9 meetings): Bodo/Glimt 3W | Draws 3 | Tromso 3W.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Tromso in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Tromso (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bodo/Glimt's attack at 1.27x the league average against Tromso's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Tromso's attack (1.05x) against Bodo/Glimt's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 37/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 2-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
56%
1.78
24%
4.20
20%
4.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
2.64
0.92
Tromso xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
4.98
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
18%
5.56
Win to Nil
22%
4.48
4%
27.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 11.3 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.7 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Tromso expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 0.92 for Tromso, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bodo/Glimt come into this having played 60 games, going 40W 12D 8L for 2.20 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W.
On the other side, Tromso sit at 1.50 PPG from 60 outings (27W 9D 24L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.70 PPG clear of Tromso — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Bodo/Glimt's home form reads 22W 5D 3L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.37 PPG return.
Away from home, Tromso have taken 1.33 points per game from 30 outings (12W 4D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 2.60 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Tromso are on 1.40 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; Tromso in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
Tromso
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Tromso in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 40W 12D 8L in their last 60 games (2.20 PPG), while Tromso have gone 27W 9D 24L in their last 60 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Tromso away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (2.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 2.37 PPG; Tromso away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Bodo/Glimt or Tromso been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Tromso in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won 5-0 on 16 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bodo/Glimt have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Tromso — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bodo/Glimt
3
Draws
3
Tromso
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Tromso?
From 10 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 4, Tromso have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Tromso last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Bodo/Glimt 5-0 Tromso.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Tromso?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Tromso are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodo/Glimt 50%, Tromso 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Bodo/Glimt and 47% for Tromso. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Tromso in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Tromso away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodo/Glimt play Tromso?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Bodo/Glimt's recent matches and 43% of Tromso's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 47% of Tromso's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Tromso tend to score early?
Bodo/Glimt have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Tromso in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bodo/Glimt run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Tromso.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Tromso 5-0 at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 1.72 xG and Tromso 0.92 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Bodo/Glimt beat their projection by 3.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Tromso landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.27 / defence 0.75 against Tromso attack 1.05 / defence 0.81, drawn from 37/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 56% | Draw 24% | Tromso 20%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 67%, Tromso 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Tromso's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.50. Form held, and they took the win. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 3.13 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line. Tromso (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.