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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Valerenga and Ham-Kam share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Intility Arena, Regular Season - 7, as Valerenga and Ham-Kam drew 1-1 in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Valerenga 1.84 xG and Ham-Kam 1.16 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Valerenga fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valerenga attack 0.95 / defence 1.30 against Ham-Kam attack 0.65 / defence 1.29, drawn from 7/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Valerenga 53% | Draw 24% | Ham-Kam 24%, with Valerenga to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valerenga 56%, Ham-Kam 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Valerenga's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Ham-Kam's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Valerenga 1.00 PPG, Ham-Kam 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Valerenga (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights