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Prediction vindicated as Tromso edge out Ham-Kam 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Tromso beat Ham-Kam 1-0 at Romssa Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Tromso 1.45 xG and Ham-Kam 0.97 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ham-Kam landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tromso attack 0.94 / defence 0.77 against Ham-Kam attack 0.90 / defence 0.94, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Tromso 47% | Draw 29% | Ham-Kam 24%, with Tromso to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tromso 53%, Ham-Kam 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Tromso's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Ham-Kam's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Tromso 1.41 PPG, Ham-Kam 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tromso win broke the near-deadlock. Tromso (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights