Tromso 1-0 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Tromso (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Tromso face Ham-Kam.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ham-Kam make the trip to Romssa Arena to face Tromso in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Sunday 21 September 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Tromso have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Tromso, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Romssa Arena, Tromso have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Ham-Kam (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ham-Kam have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Tromso's favour (1.70 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Across 7 previous meetings, Tromso are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 0, with 2 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Jun 2025, ended 3–1 with Tromso winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Tromso and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.1 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Tromso — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Ham-Kam — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tromso 43% versus Ham-Kam 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tromso 53% | Ham-Kam 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tromso 1.45 xG and Ham-Kam 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tromso attack 0.941 / defence 0.773 | Ham-Kam attack 0.895 / defence 0.937. League average goals — home 1.649 / away 1.411. Tromso's defence rating of 0.773 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 51 Tromso games / 51 Ham-Kam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tromso 47% | Draw 29% | Ham-Kam 24%. Fair-value odds: Tromso 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | Ham-Kam 4.17. Tromso hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Tromso as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tromso if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Tromso 50% | Ham-Kam 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tromso vs Ham-Kam | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Romssa Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Sep 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tromso 47% | Draw 29% | Ham-Kam 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Tromso 1.45 / Ham-Kam 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Tromso attack 0.941 / def 0.773 | Ham-Kam attack 0.895 / def 0.937 | league avg home 1.649 / away 1.411 • Poisson stance: Tromso (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Tromso xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Ham-Kam xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tromso vs Ham-Kam kick off?
Tromso vs Ham-Kam kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 21 September 2025 at Romssa Arena.
What was the final score in Tromso vs Ham-Kam?
Tromso 1 - 0 Ham-Kam.
Where is Tromso vs Ham-Kam being played?
The match is being played at Romssa Arena.
What competition is Tromso vs Ham-Kam part of?
Tromso vs Ham-Kam is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Tromso vs Ham-Kam?
Our statistical model gives Tromso a 47% chance of winning, Ham-Kam a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Tromso the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tromso vs Ham-Kam?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Tromso and Ham-Kam will score (BTTS).
Will Tromso vs Ham-Kam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Ham-Kam?
Record (7 meetings): Tromso 5W | Draws 2 | Ham-Kam 0W.
What form are Tromso and Ham-Kam in?
Tromso (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Ham-Kam (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Tromso's attack rating (0.94) and Ham-Kam's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ham-Kam's attack (0.90x) against Tromso's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tromso Win
47%
2.13
29%
3.43
24%
4.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Tromso xG
Total xG
2.43
0.97
Ham-Kam xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
4.17
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
18%
5.66
6%
17.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.5 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tromso vs Ham-Kam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Tromso and Ham-Kam expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Tromso and 0.97 for Ham-Kam, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Tromso vs Ham-Kam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Tromso's recent record stands at 21W 9D 21L from 51 games, a 1.41 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Tromso is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ham-Kam, meanwhile, have gone 13W 15D 23L across 51 games — 1.06 PPG, with L-W-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for Tromso against 1.06 for Ham-Kam. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Tromso have managed 11W 5D 9L from 25 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ham-Kam's away record stands at 6W 8D 11L across 25 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tromso come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Tromso are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Ham-Kam are on 1.12 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Defensively: Tromso have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tromso
Blended
Ham-Kam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tromso and Ham-Kam in coming into this match?
Tromso have gone 21W 9D 21L in their last 51 games (1.41 PPG), while Ham-Kam have gone 13W 15D 23L in their last 51 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tromso at home or Ham-Kam away?
Tromso's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tromso at home: 1.52 PPG; Ham-Kam away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Tromso or Ham-Kam been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tromso have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Ham-Kam in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Tromso have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Tromso won 1-4 on 18 Jul 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tromso have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ham-Kam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
7
Tromso
2
Draws
0
Ham-Kam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Ham-Kam?
From 9 meetings on record, Tromso have won 7, Ham-Kam have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Tromso and Ham-Kam last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Ham-Kam 1-4 Tromso.
Who has won more matches between Tromso and Ham-Kam?
Tromso have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Tromso are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tromso 44%, Ham-Kam 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Tromso) and 48% (Ham-Kam).
On the defensive side: Tromso keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Tromso have failed to score in 28% of games; Ham-Kam in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tromso home games / Ham-Kam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tromso play Ham-Kam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Tromso's recent matches and 44% of Ham-Kam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Tromso vs Ham-Kam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Tromso's recent games and 48% of Ham-Kam's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tromso and Ham-Kam tend to score early?
Tromso have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Ham-Kam in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Tromso edge out Ham-Kam 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tromso beat Ham-Kam 1-0 at Romssa Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tromso 1.45 xG and Ham-Kam 0.97 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ham-Kam landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tromso attack 0.94 / defence 0.77 against Ham-Kam attack 0.90 / defence 0.94, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tromso 47% | Draw 29% | Ham-Kam 24%, with Tromso to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tromso 53%, Ham-Kam 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tromso's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ham-Kam's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tromso 1.41 PPG, Ham-Kam 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tromso win broke the near-deadlock. Tromso (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.