Tromso 0-0 Fredrikstad – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Tromso (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Tromso face Fredrikstad.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Romssa Arena plays host to Tromso versus Fredrikstad in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Saturday 2 August 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Tromso's overall Eliteserien record this term: 9W 0D 1L from 10 games (2.70 PPG). Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Tromso, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tromso's home record at Romssa Arena: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.00 lags behind their overall 2.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Romssa Arena this season.
Fredrikstad (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fredrikstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fredrikstad away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.80 in Tromso's favour (2.70 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Tromso lead 2W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.3 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Jun 2025, ended 1–0 with Tromso winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Tromso goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Fredrikstad goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tromso 44% versus Fredrikstad 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tromso 58% | Fredrikstad 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tromso 1.62 xG and Fredrikstad 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tromso attack 0.983 / defence 0.860 | Fredrikstad attack 0.786 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.665 / away 1.359. Data: 45 Tromso games / 47 Fredrikstad games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tromso 54% | Draw 25% | Fredrikstad 21%. Fair-value odds: Tromso 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Fredrikstad 4.76. Tromso hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Tromso as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tromso if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Tromso 50% | Fredrikstad 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tromso vs Fredrikstad | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Romssa Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Aug 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tromso 54% | Draw 25% | Fredrikstad 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 48% | xG Tromso 1.62 / Fredrikstad 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Tromso attack 0.983 / def 0.860 | Fredrikstad attack 0.786 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.665 / away 1.359 • Poisson stance: Tromso (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Tromso xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Fredrikstad xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tromso vs Fredrikstad kick off?
Tromso vs Fredrikstad kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 August 2025 at Romssa Arena.
What was the final score in Tromso vs Fredrikstad?
Tromso 0 - 0 Fredrikstad.
Where is Tromso vs Fredrikstad being played?
The match is being played at Romssa Arena.
What competition is Tromso vs Fredrikstad part of?
Tromso vs Fredrikstad is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Tromso vs Fredrikstad?
Our statistical model gives Tromso a 54% chance of winning, Fredrikstad a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Tromso the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tromso vs Fredrikstad?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Tromso and Fredrikstad will score (BTTS).
Will Tromso vs Fredrikstad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Fredrikstad?
Record (3 meetings): Tromso 2W | Draws 1 | Fredrikstad 0W.
What form are Tromso and Fredrikstad in?
Tromso (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Fredrikstad (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Tromso's attack at 0.98x the league average against Fredrikstad's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fredrikstad's attack (0.79x) against Tromso's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 45/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 2-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tromso Win
54%
1.85
25%
4.04
21%
4.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Tromso xG
Total xG
2.54
0.92
Fredrikstad xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
4.70
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
20%
5.07
Win to Nil
22%
4.65
4%
23.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 11.7 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tromso vs Fredrikstad?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Tromso and Fredrikstad expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Tromso and 0.92 for Fredrikstad, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Tromso vs Fredrikstad?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 45 outings, Tromso have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 19W 7D 19L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Tromso is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fredrikstad's form line: 20W 13D 12L from 45 games, 1.62 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-W. The sample for Fredrikstad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Tromso against 1.62 for Fredrikstad. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Tromso have posted 1.62 PPG from 21 outings (10W 4D 7L).
On the road, Fredrikstad have gone 7W 6D 8L from 21 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Tromso are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Fredrikstad are on 1.33 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Fredrikstad in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tromso
Blended
Fredrikstad
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tromso and Fredrikstad in coming into this match?
Tromso have gone 19W 7D 19L in their last 45 games (1.42 PPG), while Fredrikstad have gone 20W 13D 12L in their last 45 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tromso at home or Fredrikstad away?
Tromso's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tromso at home: 1.62 PPG; Fredrikstad away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Tromso or Fredrikstad been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tromso have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Fredrikstad in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Tromso won 4-0 on 15 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tromso have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Fredrikstad — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Tromso
2
Draws
0
Fredrikstad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Fredrikstad?
From 5 meetings on record, Tromso have won 3, Fredrikstad have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Tromso and Fredrikstad last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Tromso 4-0 Fredrikstad.
Who has won more matches between Tromso and Fredrikstad?
Tromso have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Tromso are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Fredrikstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tromso 43%, Fredrikstad 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Tromso) and 38% (Fredrikstad).
On the defensive side: Tromso keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Fredrikstad in 33%; Tromso have failed to score in 29% of games; Fredrikstad in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tromso home games / Fredrikstad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tromso play Fredrikstad?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Tromso's recent matches and 43% of Fredrikstad's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Tromso vs Fredrikstad usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Tromso's recent games and 38% of Fredrikstad's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tromso and Fredrikstad tend to score early?
Tromso have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Fredrikstad in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Tromso's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Romssa Arena, Regular Season - 16, as Tromso and Fredrikstad drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tromso 1.62 xG and Fredrikstad 0.92 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Tromso fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Fredrikstad landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tromso attack 0.98 / defence 0.86 against Fredrikstad attack 0.79 / defence 0.99, drawn from 45/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tromso 54% | Draw 25% | Fredrikstad 21%, with Tromso to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tromso 58%, Fredrikstad 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tromso's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fredrikstad's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tromso 1.42 PPG, Fredrikstad 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Tromso (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Fredrikstad (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.