Stromsgodset 0-2 Valerenga – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Valerenga at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stromsgodset vs Valerenga encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Marienlyst Stadion plays host to Stromsgodset versus Valerenga in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Sunday 29 June 2025 at 18:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Stromsgodset have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at Marienlyst Stadion, Stromsgodset have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Valerenga's overall Eliteserien record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Valerenga haven't played a Eliteserien game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Valerenga have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Stromsgodset, 1.10 for Valerenga — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 8 meetings, Valerenga have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to Stromsgodset's 2, with 1 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.9 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Aug 2023, ended 1–3 with Valerenga winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Valerenga have won 5 of 8 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Stromsgodset goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Valerenga goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stromsgodset 44% versus Valerenga 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stromsgodset 41% | Valerenga 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 0.97 xG and Valerenga 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 0.674 / defence 1.289 | Valerenga attack 0.829 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.568 / away 1.418. Stromsgodset's attack strength of 0.674 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 40 Stromsgodset games / 11 Valerenga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 23% | Draw 27% | Valerenga 49%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 4.35 | Draw 3.70 | Valerenga 2.04. Valerenga hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Valerenga as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valerenga if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Stromsgodset 50% | Valerenga 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs Valerenga | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Jun 2025, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 23% | Draw 27% | Valerenga 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Stromsgodset 0.97 / Valerenga 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 0.674 / def 1.289 | Valerenga attack 0.829 / def 0.915 | league avg home 1.568 / away 1.418 • Poisson stance: Valerenga (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Valerenga xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stromsgodset vs Valerenga kick off?
Stromsgodset vs Valerenga kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 29 June 2025 at Marienlyst Stadion.
What was the final score in Stromsgodset vs Valerenga?
Stromsgodset 0 - 2 Valerenga.
Where is Stromsgodset vs Valerenga being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs Valerenga part of?
Stromsgodset vs Valerenga is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs Valerenga?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 23% chance of winning, Valerenga a 49% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Valerenga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs Valerenga?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Stromsgodset and Valerenga will score (BTTS).
Will Stromsgodset vs Valerenga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Valerenga?
Record (8 meetings): Stromsgodset 2W | Draws 1 | Valerenga 5W.
What form are Stromsgodset and Valerenga in?
Stromsgodset (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Valerenga (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Stromsgodset's attacking strength (0.67x league average) is weighed against Valerenga's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.97. Flip it around — Valerenga's attack (0.83x) against Stromsgodset's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 40/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.1%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valerenga Win
23%
4.27
27%
3.67
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
2.48
1.52
Valerenga xG
4.27
23%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
22%
4.56
38%
2.63
Win to Nil
5%
19.46
19%
5.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 12.7 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs Valerenga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and Valerenga expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 1.52 for Valerenga, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs Valerenga?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Stromsgodset's recent record stands at 12W 8D 12L from 32 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-W in the last five.
Valerenga, meanwhile, have gone 8W 8D 16L across 32 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-W-D-W-L in their last five. Valerenga haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Stromsgodset against 1.00 for Valerenga. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Stromsgodset have managed 8W 4D 4L from 16 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Valerenga's away record stands at 6W 4D 6L across 16 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Valerenga are on 1.28 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valerenga in 62%.
Last 32 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Current Season
Valerenga
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stromsgodset and Valerenga in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 12W 8D 12L in their last 32 games (1.38 PPG), while Valerenga have gone 8W 8D 16L in their last 32 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or Valerenga away?
Stromsgodset's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 1.75 PPG; Valerenga away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Stromsgodset or Valerenga been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stromsgodset have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Valerenga in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 26 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Valerenga go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Valerenga won 4-0 on 1 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stromsgodset have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Valerenga — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Stromsgodset
1
Draws
7
Valerenga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Valerenga?
From 10 meetings on record, Stromsgodset have won 2, Valerenga have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and Valerenga last play each other?
They last met on 26 October 2025, when Valerenga 2-1 Stromsgodset.
Who has won more matches between Stromsgodset and Valerenga?
Valerenga have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Valerenga see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stromsgodset 44%, Valerenga 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Stromsgodset) and 50% (Valerenga).
On the defensive side: Stromsgodset keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Valerenga in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / Valerenga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stromsgodset play Valerenga?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Stromsgodset's recent matches and 62% of Valerenga's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stromsgodset vs Valerenga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Stromsgodset's recent games and 50% of Valerenga's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stromsgodset and Valerenga tend to score early?
Stromsgodset have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Valerenga in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Valerenga cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Stromsgodset.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valerenga beat Stromsgodset 0-2 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 0.97 xG and Valerenga 1.52 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Stromsgodset fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 0.67 / defence 1.29 against Valerenga attack 0.83 / defence 0.92, drawn from 40/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 23% | Draw 27% | Valerenga 49%, with Valerenga to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 41%, Valerenga 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Valerenga's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stromsgodset 1.38 PPG, Valerenga 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valerenga win broke the near-deadlock. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Valerenga (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.