Stromsgodset 1-0 KFUM Oslo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Stromsgodset at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Stromsgodset face KFUM Oslo.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
KFUM Oslo travel to Marienlyst Stadion to take on Stromsgodset in Eliteserien (matchday 28). The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 November 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Stromsgodset — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Stromsgodset's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, KFUM Oslo stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
KFUM Oslo away from home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Stromsgodset 1.30 PPG, KFUM Oslo 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Stromsgodset's games and 70% of KFUM Oslo's (from Stromsgodset's last 10 home games and KFUM Oslo's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Stromsgodset have won 1, KFUM Oslo 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 16 Apr 2024, ended Stromsgodset 3–1 KFUM Oslo — a Stromsgodset win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Stromsgodset in-play tendencies (last 27 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
KFUM Oslo in-play tendencies (last 27 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stromsgodset 48% versus KFUM Oslo 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stromsgodset 41% | KFUM Oslo 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 1.32 xG and KFUM Oslo 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 0.913 / defence 0.899 | KFUM Oslo attack 0.901 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.289. Data: built from Stromsgodset's last 57 games and KFUM Oslo's last 27.
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 43% | Draw 28% | KFUM Oslo 29%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 2.33 | Draw 3.63 | KFUM Oslo 3.39. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stromsgodset are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stromsgodset offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Stromsgodset 60% (last 10 home games) | KFUM Oslo 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs KFUM Oslo | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 28 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 10 November 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 43% | Draw 28% | KFUM Oslo 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Stromsgodset 1.32 / KFUM Oslo 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 0.913 / def 0.899 | KFUM Oslo attack 0.901 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.525 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Stromsgodset (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
1.04
KFUM Oslo xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Stromsgodset vs KFUM Oslo FAQs
What time does Stromsgodset vs KFUM Oslo kick off?
Stromsgodset vs KFUM Oslo kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 10 November 2024 at Marienlyst Stadion.
What was the final score in Stromsgodset vs KFUM Oslo?
Stromsgodset 1 - 0 KFUM Oslo.
Where is Stromsgodset vs KFUM Oslo being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs KFUM Oslo part of?
Stromsgodset vs KFUM Oslo is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 28) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs KFUM Oslo?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 43% chance of winning, KFUM Oslo a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Stromsgodset the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs KFUM Oslo?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Stromsgodset and KFUM Oslo will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Stromsgodset vs KFUM Oslo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Stromsgodset's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against KFUM Oslo's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. The same calculation in reverse, KFUM Oslo's attack versus Stromsgodset's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Stromsgodset's last 57 games and KFUM Oslo's last 27 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stromsgodset Win
43%
2.33
28%
3.63
29%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
2.37
1.04
KFUM Oslo xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
3.39
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
15%
6.61
8%
12.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.0 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Stromsgodset vs KFUM Oslo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs KFUM Oslo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and KFUM Oslo expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 1.04 for KFUM Oslo, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs KFUM Oslo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stromsgodset's recent record stands at 8W 8D 11L from 27 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-L in the last five.
KFUM Oslo, meanwhile, have gone 8W 10D 9L across 27 games — 1.26 PPG, with D-W-D-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stromsgodset on 1.19 PPG, KFUM Oslo on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Stromsgodset have managed 5W 4D 4L from their last 13 home games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
KFUM Oslo's away record stands at 6W 3D 4L across their last 13 away games, a 1.62 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; KFUM Oslo are on 1.19 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 27 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Blended
KFUM Oslo
Blended
Stromsgodset (Home) vs KFUM Oslo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Stromsgodset
Blended
KFUM Oslo
Blended
❓ Stromsgodset vs KFUM Oslo Form FAQs
What form are Stromsgodset and KFUM Oslo in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 8W 8D 11L in their last 27 games (1.19 PPG), while KFUM Oslo have gone 8W 10D 9L in their last 27 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or KFUM Oslo away?
KFUM Oslo's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 1.46 PPG; KFUM Oslo away: 1.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from April 2024. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent in our data was on 5 October 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 22 Jun 2025, when KFUM Oslo won KFUM Oslo 5-0 Stromsgodset.
Stromsgodset's record when hosting KFUM Oslo specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Stromsgodset
1
Draws
1
KFUM Oslo
Recent Meetings
❓ Stromsgodset vs KFUM Oslo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and KFUM Oslo?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Stromsgodset have won 2, KFUM Oslo have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and KFUM Oslo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 October 2025: Stromsgodset 1-1 KFUM Oslo.
Who has won more matches between Stromsgodset and KFUM Oslo?
Stromsgodset have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
KFUM Oslo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stromsgodset 54%, KFUM Oslo 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Stromsgodset) and 54% (KFUM Oslo).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / KFUM Oslo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Stromsgodset vs KFUM Oslo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Stromsgodset and KFUM Oslo matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Stromsgodset's games and 62% of KFUM Oslo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Stromsgodset and KFUM Oslo matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Stromsgodset's recent games and 54% of KFUM Oslo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stromsgodset and KFUM Oslo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Stromsgodset's recent matches and 77% of KFUM Oslo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stromsgodset edge out KFUM Oslo 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stromsgodset beat KFUM Oslo 1-0 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 1.32 xG and KFUM Oslo 1.04 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. KFUM Oslo landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 0.91 / defence 0.90 against KFUM Oslo attack 0.90 / defence 0.95, drawn from 57/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 43% | Draw 28% | KFUM Oslo 29%, with Stromsgodset to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 41%, KFUM Oslo 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
KFUM Oslo's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stromsgodset 1.19 PPG, KFUM Oslo 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stromsgodset win broke the near-deadlock. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. KFUM Oslo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.