KFUM Oslo 1-2 Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sarpsborg 08 FF make the trip to KFUM Arena to face KFUM Oslo in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Sunday 3 November 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
KFUM Oslo (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for KFUM Oslo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at KFUM Arena, KFUM Oslo have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's overall Eliteserien record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sarpsborg 08 FF away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — KFUM Oslo lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2024, ended 2–0 with KFUM Oslo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
KFUM Oslo half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).
Sarpsborg 08 FF half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — KFUM Oslo 58% and Sarpsborg 08 FF 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KFUM Oslo 42% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KFUM Oslo 1.09 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KFUM Oslo attack 0.650 / defence 0.904 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.178 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.550 / away 1.238. KFUM Oslo's attack strength of 0.650 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 26 KFUM Oslo games / 56 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KFUM Oslo 31% | Draw 27% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 42%. Fair-value odds: KFUM Oslo 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sarpsborg 08 FF at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sarpsborg 08 FF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: KFUM Oslo 50% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: KFUM Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Nov 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KFUM Oslo 31% | Draw 27% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG KFUM Oslo 1.09 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: KFUM Oslo attack 0.650 / def 0.904 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.178 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.550 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
KFUM Oslo xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 3 November 2024 at KFUM Arena.
What was the final score in KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
KFUM Oslo 1 - 2 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Where is KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at KFUM Arena.
What competition is KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives KFUM Oslo a 31% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both KFUM Oslo and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score (BTTS).
Will KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between KFUM Oslo and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Record (1 meetings): KFUM Oslo 1W | Draws 0 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 0W.
What form are KFUM Oslo and Sarpsborg 08 FF in?
KFUM Oslo (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from KFUM Oslo's attack rating (0.65) and Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack (1.18x) against KFUM Oslo's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 26/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
31%
3.24
27%
3.65
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
KFUM Oslo xG
Total xG
2.41
1.32
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
3.24
31%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
8%
12.11
14%
7.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 11.8 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are KFUM Oslo and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for KFUM Oslo and 1.32 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
KFUM Oslo's recent record stands at 8W 10D 8L from 26 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for KFUM Oslo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sarpsborg 08 FF, meanwhile, have gone 8W 5D 13L across 26 games — 1.12 PPG, with L-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for KFUM Oslo against 1.12 for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, KFUM Oslo have managed 2W 7D 4L from 13 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's away record stands at 5W 3D 5L across 13 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
KFUM Oslo are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 1.38 scored and 1.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF in 65%.
Last 26 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KFUM Oslo
Blended
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KFUM Oslo and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
KFUM Oslo have gone 8W 10D 8L in their last 26 games (1.31 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 8W 5D 13L in their last 26 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KFUM Oslo at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KFUM Oslo at home: 1.00 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 1.38 PPG.
Have KFUM Oslo or Sarpsborg 08 FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
KFUM Oslo have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, KFUM Oslo have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sarpsborg 08 FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
KFUM Oslo
0
Draws
3
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KFUM Oslo and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
From 5 meetings on record, KFUM Oslo have won 2, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did KFUM Oslo and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when KFUM Oslo 1-0 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between KFUM Oslo and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
KFUM Oslo see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KFUM Oslo 54%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (KFUM Oslo) and 77% (Sarpsborg 08 FF).
On the defensive side: KFUM Oslo keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; KFUM Oslo have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KFUM Oslo home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KFUM Oslo play Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of KFUM Oslo's games and 69% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of KFUM Oslo's recent games and 77% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do KFUM Oslo and Sarpsborg 08 FF tend to score early?
KFUM Oslo have had a goal before half-time in 38% of their recent matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sarpsborg 08 FF edge out KFUM Oslo 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sarpsborg 08 FF beat KFUM Oslo 1-2 at KFUM Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KFUM Oslo 1.09 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.32 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KFUM Oslo attack 0.65 / defence 0.90 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.18 / defence 1.08, drawn from 26/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KFUM Oslo 31% | Draw 27% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 42%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KFUM Oslo 42%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KFUM Oslo's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — KFUM Oslo 1.31 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sarpsborg 08 FF win broke the near-deadlock. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.