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Dominant Ham-Kam run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Stromsgodset.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ham-Kam beat Stromsgodset 0-3 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 1.36 xG and Ham-Kam 1.04 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Stromsgodset fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Ham-Kam outscored their 1.04 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 0.75 / defence 1.13 against Ham-Kam attack 0.65 / defence 1.21, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 44% | Draw 27% | Ham-Kam 29%, with Stromsgodset to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Ham-Kam win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 37%, Ham-Kam 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stromsgodset's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Ham-Kam's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Stromsgodset 1.33 PPG, Ham-Kam 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ham-Kam win broke the near-deadlock. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights