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Poisson rates Stromsgodset at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stromsgodset vs Ham-Kam encounter.

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Match Analysis

Stromsgodset host Ham-Kam at Marienlyst Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 31 May 2025 at 15:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Stromsgodset — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.

At home at Marienlyst Stadion, Stromsgodset have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Ham-Kam stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Ham-Kam's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

Stromsgodset are in the better shape of the two on current Eliteserien data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Stromsgodset have won 1, Ham-Kam 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 6 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Stromsgodset in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Ham-Kam in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stromsgodset 43% versus Ham-Kam 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stromsgodset 37% | Ham-Kam 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 1.36 xG and Ham-Kam 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 0.753 / defence 1.130 | Ham-Kam attack 0.645 / defence 1.210. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.425. Stromsgodset's attack strength of 0.753 is below the league average — the 1.36 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Ham-Kam bring a strong defensive rating of 1.210 — this is suppressing Stromsgodset's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Stromsgodset games / 38 Ham-Kam games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 44% | Draw 27% | Ham-Kam 29%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Ham-Kam 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Stromsgodset at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stromsgodset offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Stromsgodset 50% | Ham-Kam 50%.

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