Start 5-1 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Start at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Start vs Haugesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Haugesund make the trip to Sparebanken Sør Arena to face Start in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Start (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Start, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Start at Sparebanken Sør Arena this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Haugesund have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W L L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haugesund away from home this season: 2W 2D 5L from 9 away games — 0.89 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.78 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.89 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Start against 1.40 for Haugesund. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Start, 1 for Haugesund and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Jul 2020, ended 0–1 with Haugesund winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Start half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
Haugesund half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Start 47% versus Haugesund 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Start 58% | Haugesund 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Start 1.15 xG and Haugesund 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Start attack 0.743 / defence 1.095 | Haugesund attack 0.675 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.426 / away 1.404. Start's attack strength of 0.743 is below the league average — the 1.15 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 19 Start games / 19 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Start 38% | Draw 29% | Haugesund 33%. Fair-value odds: Start 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Haugesund 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Start at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Start if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Start 50% | Haugesund 44%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Start vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Sparebanken Sør Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Oct 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Start 38% | Draw 29% | Haugesund 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Start 1.15 / Haugesund 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Start attack 0.743 / def 1.095 | Haugesund attack 0.675 / def 1.083 | league avg home 1.426 / away 1.404 • Poisson stance: Start (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Start xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Haugesund xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Start vs Haugesund kick off?
Start vs Haugesund kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 4 October 2020 at Sparebanken Sør Arena.
What was the final score in Start vs Haugesund?
Start 5 - 1 Haugesund.
Where is Start vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Sparebanken Sør Arena.
What competition is Start vs Haugesund part of?
Start vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Start vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Start a 38% chance of winning, Haugesund a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Start the favourite.
Will both teams score in Start vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Start and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Start vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Start and Haugesund?
Record (1 meetings): Start 0W | Draws 0 | Haugesund 1W.
What form are Start and Haugesund in?
Start (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Haugesund (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Start's attack rating (0.74) and Haugesund's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Haugesund's attack (0.68x) against Start's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Start Win
38%
2.62
29%
3.43
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Start xG
Total xG
2.19
1.04
Haugesund xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
14%
7.40
10%
9.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 11.7 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.4 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Start vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Start and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Start and 1.04 for Haugesund, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Start vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Start's recent record stands at 3W 6D 10L from 19 games, a 0.79 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Start is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Haugesund, meanwhile, have gone 6W 4D 9L across 19 games — 1.16 PPG, with W-W-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.79 PPG for Start against 1.16 for Haugesund. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Start have managed 3W 3D 3L from 9 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.79 PPG overall — Start are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Haugesund's away record stands at 2W 2D 5L across 9 trips, a 0.89 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Start come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Start are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.21 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Last 19 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Start
Blended
Haugesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Start and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Start have gone 3W 6D 10L in their last 19 games (0.79 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 6W 4D 9L in their last 19 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Start at home or Haugesund away?
Start's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Start at home: 1.33 PPG; Haugesund away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since July 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 October 2020, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Start
0
Draws
1
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Start and Haugesund?
From 2 meetings on record, Start have won 1, Haugesund have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Start and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 4 October 2020, when Start 5-1 Haugesund.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Start are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Start 44%, Haugesund 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Start) and 44% (Haugesund).
On the defensive side: Start keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Haugesund in 33%; Start have failed to score in 33% of games; Haugesund in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Start home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Start play Haugesund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Start's recent matches and 44% of Haugesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Start vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Start's recent games and 44% of Haugesund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Start and Haugesund tend to score early?
Start have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Start run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Haugesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Start beat Haugesund 5-1 at Sparebanken Sør Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Start 1.15 xG and Haugesund 1.04 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Start beat their projection by 3.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Start attack 0.74 / defence 1.09 against Haugesund attack 0.68 / defence 1.08, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Start 38% | Draw 29% | Haugesund 33%, with Start to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Start 58%, Haugesund 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Start's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Haugesund's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Start 0.79 PPG, Haugesund 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Start win broke the near-deadlock. Start (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm. Haugesund (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.