Sarpsborg 08 FF 2-1 Tromso – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sarpsborg 08 FF face Tromso.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Tromso make the trip to Sarpsborg Stadion to face Sarpsborg 08 FF in Eliteserien (matchday 30). The match kicks off on Sunday 1 December 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Sarpsborg 08 FF have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Tromso's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Tromso away from home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 1.20 for Tromso — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Sarpsborg 08 FF edge it 3 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 28 Apr 2024, ended Sarpsborg 08 FF 3–0 Tromso — a Sarpsborg 08 FF win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Sarpsborg 08 FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Tromso goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% versus Tromso 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% | Tromso 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.57 xG and Tromso 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.905 / defence 1.210 | Tromso attack 0.741 / defence 1.164. League average goals — home 1.494 / away 1.256. Tromso's attack rating of 0.741 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.13. Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence rating of 1.210 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Tromso's projected output up. Data: built from Sarpsborg 08 FF's last 59 games and Tromso's last 59.
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 48% | Draw 25% | Tromso 27%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.10 | Draw 3.99 | Tromso 3.67. Sarpsborg 08 FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sarpsborg 08 FF are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sarpsborg 08 FF if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Sarpsborg 08 FF 80% (last 10 home games) | Tromso 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 30 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 1 December 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 48% | Draw 25% | Tromso 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.57 / Tromso 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.905 / def 1.210 | Tromso attack 0.741 / def 1.164 | league avg home 1.494 / away 1.256 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Tromso xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso FAQs
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 1 December 2024 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 2 - 1 Tromso.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 30) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 48% chance of winning, Tromso a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Tromso will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack rating (0.91) and Tromso's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Tromso's attack (0.74x) against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from Sarpsborg 08 FF's last 59 games and Tromso's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
48%
2.10
25%
3.99
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
2.70
1.13
Tromso xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
21%
4.82
Win to Nil
15%
6.47
6%
17.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.9 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Tromso expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1.13 for Tromso, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 59 outings, Sarpsborg 08 FF have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 21W 12D 26L record — W-L-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Tromso's form line: 28W 10D 21L from 59 games, 1.59 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Sarpsborg 08 FF against 1.59 for Tromso. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sarpsborg 08 FF have posted 1.31 PPG from their last 29 home games (11W 5D 13L).
On the road, Tromso have gone 14W 4D 11L from their last 29 away games — 1.59 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Tromso are on 1.37 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Current Season
Tromso
Current Season
Sarpsborg 08 FF (Home) vs Tromso (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Current Season
Tromso
Current Season
❓ Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso Form FAQs
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Tromso in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 21W 12D 26L in their last 59 games (1.27 PPG), while Tromso have gone 28W 10D 21L in their last 59 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Tromso away?
Tromso's away record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.31 PPG; Tromso away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Sarpsborg 08 FF or Tromso been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Tromso in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was as recently as 30 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sarpsborg 08 FF won Sarpsborg 08 FF 4-0 Tromso on 26 Aug 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Tromso — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sarpsborg 08 FF
2
Draws
4
Tromso
Recent Meetings
❓ Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Tromso?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 4, Tromso have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Tromso last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 August 2026: Tromso 0-0 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Tromso see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sarpsborg 08 FF 72%, Tromso 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 48% for Tromso. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Tromso in 34%; Tromso in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Tromso away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sarpsborg 08 FF and Tromso matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's games and 41% of Tromso's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Tromso matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's matches and 48% of Tromso's.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Tromso matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent matches and 55% of Tromso's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sarpsborg 08 FF edge out Tromso 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sarpsborg 08 FF beat Tromso 2-1 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.57 xG and Tromso 1.13 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.91 / defence 1.21 against Tromso attack 0.74 / defence 1.16, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 48% | Draw 25% | Tromso 27%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 70%, Tromso 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Tromso's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.27 PPG, Tromso 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sarpsborg 08 FF win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.