Sandefjord 0-1 Fredrikstad – Result & Analysis

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Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Fredrikstad travel to Jotun Arena to take on Sandefjord. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 December 2024, 16:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Sandefjord stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

In front of their own supporters this season, Sandefjord have posted 5W 2D 3L at Jotun Arena — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Fredrikstad — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Fredrikstad away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Sandefjord) versus 1.70 (Fredrikstad). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Sandefjord, 1 for Fredrikstad and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2024, ended 0–1 with Fredrikstad winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Sandefjord trading profile (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).

Fredrikstad trading profile (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandefjord 66% versus Fredrikstad 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandefjord 66% | Fredrikstad 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.70 xG and Fredrikstad 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 1.003 / defence 1.006 | Fredrikstad attack 0.861 / defence 1.134. League average goals — home 1.494 / away 1.256. Data: 59 Sandefjord games / 29 Fredrikstad games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sandefjord 52% | Draw 24% | Fredrikstad 24%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Fredrikstad 4.17. Sandefjord hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Sandefjord as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sandefjord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sandefjord 70% | Fredrikstad 40% BTTS from recent games.

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