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Sarpsborg 08 FF and Bryne share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 10, as Sarpsborg 08 FF and Bryne drew 1-1 in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.00 xG and Bryne 1.18 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Sarpsborg 08 FF fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.04 / defence 0.92 against Bryne attack 0.87 / defence 1.28, drawn from 39/9 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 56% | Draw 22% | Bryne 22%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights